Wow, already the last week of the regular season. Starting tomorrow, we start rolling the Jim Mora clips. First, time for the picks…

As always, home team in caps:

BILLS (+3) over Colts
Seems like based on what we saw last week, the Colts plan to rest their stars. That means a lot of Painter at QB, which likely does not bode well for the Colts. Bills win by default.

Jags (+1) over BROWNS
The Jaguars are one of those up-and-down teams, and after the 35-7 loss to the Patriots last week, it might be time for them to bounce back. I especially like the Jaguars offense against the Browns D, which teams like to light up on a weekly basis (though maybe not as much of late, but if those guys want Mangini gone, they might lay down–yeah, that’s a joke).

Bears (-3) over LIONS
The Bears have been a disappointment this year, but against the Lions, they should be able tog et soemthing going on the ground and through the air. The Lions will have some fight in them, but I doubt it will workout for them this week.

Falcons (-2.5) over BUCS
Tampa is coming off a win over the Saints, but I don’t think they will have the same type of game. Matty Ice and the rest of the crew should be able to squeeze one out in Tampa.

Niners (-7) over RAMS
Rams lose and they lock up the #1 pick in the draft…

Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
Nobody is sure how much Ricky Williams will play this week, and the Dolphins offense hasn’t been as good without him. This might be a close game, but I think the Steelers pull it out late.

VIKINGS (-9) over Giants
The Vikings have looked awful of late, but maybe this is when they end their losing streak and attempt to take the #2 seed in the process. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Favre throws 4 picks and has a fumble.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints
The Saints are about to lose their third straight, especially since Brees is expected to play limited minutes.

TEXANS (-8) over Patriots
I like what I saw from the Patriots last week, but I don’t expect them to play injured players for an entire game, that includes Tom Brady. Look for Schaub to go nuts in this one.

Packers (+3.5) over CARDINALS
I picked Green Bay to win that division at the start of the year (bad pick I guess), but they are playing for playoff seeding now, as are the Cardinals. Given injury history for Kurt Warner, he may not play the whole game. In any case, I like the Packers defense and the evolution of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are a dangerous team going forward.

CHARGERS (-4) over Redskins
Rivers isn’t expected to play a whole game, but it’s the ‘Skins. I can’t possibly pick that team to win a game.

Titans (-4.5) over SEAHAWKS
VY and Chris Johnson against the Seahawks D sounds like a tough day for the ‘Hawks.

Ravens (-10.5) over RAIDERS
The Ravens need a win to make the playoffs, so I don’t expect them to lose their focus against a team like Oakland. Ravens defense, coupled with the solid offense they have, should be enough to stop whoever the heck the Raiders are playing at QB.

COWBOYS (-3) over EAGLES
Easily the game of the week (on paper). I like both of these teams, but I just have a feeling this will be one of those days when people think Wade Phillips is a good coach and Tony Romo is a good quarterback. Both teams have a chance at the #2 seed as well.

BRONCOS (-13) over Chiefs
Josh McDaniels against the QB he coached previously sounds like a win for him. However, both of these teams have played poorly this season (Broncos 2-7 in the last 9 after starting 6-0). Broncos find a way to win this game, but still miss the playoffs.

Bengals (+10) over JETS
The Bengals are playing for playoff seeding and they probably want to go into the playoffs with a win. The Jets need a win to get in to the tournament, but the Bengals defense is good enough to make Sanchez make mistakes, which should be enough to help the Bengals pull one out, even if they decide to have Palmer ride the pine at the end of the game.

Inside the numbers: Why resting players has let the Colts down

By Jeffrey Pickette

It is a decision that will be debated for weeks to come.

Faced with the prospects of going 16-0, the 2009 Indianapolis Colts figuratively punted and played it safe yesterday, pulling most of their starters (including Peyton Manning) in the third quarter of a 15-10 game at home against the Jets.

The Colts lost 29-15 with Curtis Painter (who?) at QB for the Colts.  The Colts still have home field throughout the AFC playoffs, but gone is any chance at a perfect 19-0 season.  Was the decision to rest the starters worth it?  Was it the right thing to do? We’ll find out come playoff time.

But for now, I thought I’d take a look at if the Colts’ “organizational philosophy” of resting players actually pays off.  I looked at the 2003-2008 seasons, with 2003 being the first of seven straight 12+ win seasons for the Colts.  All stats and scores were obtained from the pro football reference.com website.

From 2003 to 2008, the Colts rested players in the 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons.  In 05, 07 and 08 the Colts were “one and done” and lost their first playoff game, even though they were probably favored to win each time.  In 04, the Colts won in the Wild Card Round and lost the next week to the Patriots in the Divisional Round.  

On the other hand, the two seasons in which the Colts did not rest players (03 and 06) they enjoyed more postseason success.  In 03, the Colts advanced to the AFC title game before losing to the Patriots and in 06 the Colts went all the way, beating the Bears in the Super Bowl.

Coincidence?  I think not.  While I am largely going off box scores, standings and not watching game film, I still feel comfortable saying that this “organizational philosophy” has largely let the Colts down.  Sure, other factors should be taken into consideration, but there is a definite trend here.

The 2005 season, in which the Colts started the season 13-0, is probably the best parallel to the 2009 Colts.  Having secured home field relatively early that season, the Colts rested many of their starters in the last 2 games of the season.  That seems to be the route the 2009 Colts team is taking.  In 05 the Colts were ousted from the playoffs in their first playoff game after basically going a month between playing meaningful games.  Could the same fate be in store for the 2009 Colts?

Below is a more detailed season-by-season breakdown of the Colts’ resting strategy.
  
2003: 12-4, 1st AFC South, no rest, 2-1 playoffs

Colts starters played in their final game (12/28/03) at Houston, having to secure the division title (the Titans were also 12-4 in ‘03).

The Colts advanced to the AFC Championship that year, beating the Broncos and Chiefs before losing to the Patriots.

2004: 12-4, 1st AFC South, rested final game, 1-1 playoffs

Colts rested against Denver in the final game of the season (1-2-05) since the division was already secured.  The Colts lost to the Broncos in the regular season finale, but played the Broncos the next week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and won. The Colts lost in the Divisional round to the Patriots.

2005: 14-2, 1st AFC South, rested final 2 games, 0-1 playoffs

The 2005 Colts started 13-0 before losing at home to San Diego in week 15.  With the division, a first round bye and home field secured, the Colts rested starters for much of the Seattle game in Week 16 and for almost all of the Cardinals game in week 17.  

The Colts, therefore, basically went from December 18 (date of Chargers game) to January 15 (date of Divisional round game vs. the Steelers) without playing at full speed.  The Colts were upset at home by the Steelers.

2006: 12-4, 1st in AFC South, no rest, 4-0 playoffs, SB champs

The Colts did not rest and went 4-0 in the playoffs en route to Manning’s first Super Bowl championship.

2007: 13-3, 1st in AFC South, rested part of final game, 0-1 playoffs

The Colts secured the 2nd seed, and with it a bye, so they rested starters for part of the regular season finale against the Titans.  The Colts lost that game 16-10 and lost their divisional playoff game a couple of weeks later to the Chargers, making it the second time in three seasons that the Colts were “one and done” in the playoffs.

2008: 12-4, 2nd in AFC South, rested most of final game, 0-1 playoffs

In the 2008 regular season finale, both the Titans (the South champs that year) and the Colts rested in what was a 23-0 snoozer that went in favor of the Colts.  The Colts, the AFC’s#5 seed, had to travel to 8-8 San Diego in the Wild Card Round the next week.  The Colts lost that game 23-17 and were “one and done” for the third time in four seasons.

The Patriots have morphed into a “grind it out” team (read: team struggling to score points), which, coupled with their lackluster defense, does not bode well for the end of the season or for the playoffs (assuming they make it). Against the Jaguars, run stopper Vince Wilfork is out for the Patriots, which means Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run at will against the depleted Patriots D-line, the same way Fred Jackson did early in the game against Buffalo (before the Bills showed us why there were the Bills with stupid coaching). That said, with decent weather conditions in New England, Tom Brady should be able to bounce back against the Jags’ sub-par pass defense. I’ll take the Patriots (-7.5) over the Jaguars.

Now the rest of the Week 16 Picks:

Chargers (+3) over TITANS
FALCONS (-9) over Bills
BENGALS (-13.5) over Chiefs
BROWNS (-3) over Raiders
PACKERS (-14) over Seahawks
Texans (+3) over DOLPHINS
GIANTS (-7) over Panthers
SAINTS (-14) over Bucs
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
CARDINALS (-14) over Rams
NINERS (-12) over Lions
EAGLES (-7) over Broncos
Jets (+6) over COLTS (more of a hope than a prediction)
Cowboys (-6.5) over REDSKINS
BEARS (+7) over Vikings

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 101-43 (Picks not made for all weeks)

Some interesting reports on the news wire today that are worth noting:

Red Sox:

Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox worked in an option to Lackey’s contract that would pay him the league minimum at the end of his contract, should he miss time due to an elbow injury (a pre-existing condition)

WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Red Sox may still be considering signing Jason Bay.This report comes one day after the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman suggested that Jason Bay or Matt Holliday could “fall into the Red Sox’ lap.”

The Globe 10.0 discusses the Mike Lowell situation

Patriots:
ESPNBoston.com’s Mike Reiss has an updated injury report for the upcoming game against the Jaguars

The Boston Globe’s Tony Massarotti has five burning questions for the 2009 Patriots

Fred Taylor commented on the possibility of the Jaguars moving to LA

Tom Brady indicated the Patriots are still in search of an identity on offense

Celtics

Paul Pierce is out with a knee infection

Bruce Bowen breaks down the Celtics-Magic matchup

Bill Simmons expects plenty of NBA trades this season

Bruins

The Globe 10.0 debates the goalie situation in Boston

Following the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron, and the nullification of the Mike Lowell trade, the Red Sox are limited options available to them to improve the team. Here’s how the roster looks right now:

Projected Lineup:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
Dustin Pedroia, 2b
Victor Martinez, C
Kevin Youkilis, 1b
David Ortiz, DH
Mike Lowell, 3b
J.D. Drew, RF
Mike Cameron, CF
Marco Scutaro, SS

Bench

Casey Kotchman, 1b
Jason Varitek, C
Jeremy Hermida, OF
Jed Lowrie, 2b/SS/3b

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen
Tim Wakefield, RHP long reliever/spot starter
Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Dustin Richardson, LHP
Ramon Ramirez, RHP
Hideki Okajima, LHP
Daniel Bard, RHP (setup)
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP (closer)

So now what?

Adrian Gonzalez

The obvious need for this team is another big bat. They don’t have much room to add a player, that was a major aspect to the Mike Lowell trade. Let’s put that aside and assume they can deal with where to play somebody when they sign him. Also, according to Tony Massarotti, the Red Sox payroll is projected to be in excess of $170 million, which means signing another top free agent is likely out of the question. Keep in mind that the luxury tax threshold is $170 million. This makes San Diego Padres 1b Adrian Gonzalez the target. Gonzo is signed for the next two seasons for a total of $9 million ($4.5mm in 2010, $5.5mm option for 2011).

Getting a player of this caliber, a player who has the ability to hit over 40 HRs and drive in well over 100 runs, would be a major addition to the Red Sox lineup. As the lineup stands, they should score enough runs to win the wild card (coupled with their ability to prevent runs through pitching and defense), but let’s face it, Kevin Youkilis shouldn’t be the best hitter on the team (or second best if you think VMart is the best). As of right now, the price tag for Gonzo is extremely high. Jed Hoyer, newly hired GM of the Padres (and former Assistant GM in Boston), is reportedly asking for a package that includes both Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. They would also like either Ryan Westmoreland or Casey Kelly to be included in the trade, as well as other pieces.

We all know what Buchholz and Ellsbury are right now and might become in the future. In San Diego, I fully expect Clay Buchholz to be able to post a sub-3.00 ERA by next season (probably something closer to 4.00 in the AL). He’s probably a #2 or #3 starter at best, but still, that’s a good pitcher there. Ellsbury on the other hand, is. to me, a very special player. Right now, he’s a .300 hitter who get’s on base at around a .350 clip, an excellent baserunner who stole 70 bases in 2009, and also voted the Defensive Player of the Year.  His OBP isn’t great, but in September and October, he was getting on-base at a .388 clip, much higher than his overall numbers indicate.  He’s completed two full seasons in the majors and has improved each year.  Ellsbury is a player who will roam CF (or LF if Mike Cameron is in town) for the next 10 years for someone.  He’s the player the Red Sox want playing with Adrian Gonzalez, to me, trading him would be a mistake (in package of other players), and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo agrees.

Westmoreland and Kelly are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but Epstein was reluctant to trade either of these players in trades for Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay last summer. Westmoreland, an outfielder, is currently the #2 prospect in the Red Sox farm system, as rated by SoxProspects.com.  The scouting report on him is that he’s a patient hitter with above-average power, and has elite speed.  Perhaps he’s the next Ellsbury, but he’s only 19 years old and likely won’t be ready until Ellsbury hits free agency in four years, though it is possible he comes to the majors earlier than that.  Based on the scouting reports, Westmoreland projects to be a player like Johnny Damon, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   Kelly, on the other hand, played shortstop and was a starting pitcher in his first full season in the minor leagues.  Theo Epstein has said that Kelly will focus on pitching now, and experts like Gammons believe Kelly will be in the majors in 2011, with a potential call-up in 2010.  Here’s what SoxProspects.com has to say about Kelly, the Red Sox #1 prospect on their ranking system:

As a pitcher, Kelly’s skills are quite advanced for his age, mixing in a low 90s fastball, a hard 12-6 curveball, and a nice change, all with above average command and control. Sound, smooth mechanics. Fastball has excellent downward movement, and generally sits between 89 and 92 mph. Many scouts project that he’ll sit in the 92-94 mph range after he fills out. Curveball is plus with the potential of being a plus-plus wipeout pitch. It sits around 76-78 mph, but he tends to show it a little too much at times. Changeup sits around 84 mph with a lot of sink. For the most part, he keeps the ball low in the zone, but he’s hittable when he leaves it up. Very good mound presence

Obviously it’s hard to say what Kelly will become since he is only 20 years old, but we have to keep in mind the success rate of the Red Sox prospects. They’ve given us Lester, Papelbon, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis, among others. Those are all legitimate MLB players, so it’s hard to go and trade away talent.

In my opinion, the Red Sox should not consider a trade for Gonzalez that asks them to part with both Ellsbury and Buchholz. However, a package of Buchholz, Westmoreland, OF Josh Reddick, and SP Michael Bowden should be enough to get the deal done. In that package, the Padres would receive a front-of-the-rotation in Buchholz, a major league ready OF in Reddick, the potential of Westmoreland, and a back-of the-rotation starter in Bowden. Perhaps the Sox could add 1b Lars Anderson to the package in place of Bowden, but that is not in their best interest. A trade is a possibility, but it is not close, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

But the question is, do the Red Sox need to add a bat? Former Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi does not believe that is the case.

“I really like the Red Sox the way they’re constituted right now,’’ said Ricciardi. “They’re going to pitch well and catch well. I know we had teams in Toronto where we had the best starting and reliever ERA and we still didn’t make the playoffs. If our lineup had played up to its potential we would have made the playoffs.

“But I think Boston’s lineup is very good. You’ve got tremendous bats with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron . . . and Marco Scutaro is really going to add a lot of offense. Big Papi had an off year and he drove in almost a hundred runs and hit almost 30 homers. [Jacoby] Ellsbury has that speed that is so effective. Some guys can run, but they have no impact. Ellsbury has tremendous impact in that he can disrupt. He can score on a wild pitch, score on a shallow sac fly. He can manufacture a run, not to mention what his speed does on defense and he’s young.

“Personally, if I had a rotation this deep, I wouldn’t move anyone. They also have the resources to go out and probably do a couple of other things. We all know you need seven or eight starters during the year. Last year they went with Brad Penny and John Smoltz and so what they have now is an improvement over that.’’

In my opinion, I think the Red Sox are two bats away from being the favorites for the World Series, however, as constituted, I do think they will make the playoffs and would have the ability to beat anybody in a short series with their pitching staff. Look, if they’re willing to expand the payroll near $190 million, then I’d say they should go ahead and trade Ellsbury and Buchholz for Gonzalez, while signing another starter, and either bringing back Jason Bay or signing Matt Holliday to play left field. A lineup with Scutaro, Pedroia, Martinez, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Holliday/Bay, Ortiz, Drew, and Cameron would be an elite lineup, but they’d rely on power, which may not be in their best interest, and is also highly unlikely given the payroll constraints.

But hey, we can just go get Gonzalez in two years, right?

Other things the Red Sox might look for are a left-handed reliever, and perhaps, they might look for another right-handed bat off the bench, but they would need to clear some roster space to make moves of this nature.  Depth in the bullpen is probably more important.  The best available lefty is probably Darren Olliver, who posted a 2.71 ERA for the Angels last season, but Will Ohman and Ron Villone are among other possibilities.  The Red Sox could also opt to go with Richardson (who I have projected to be in the ‘pen this year), or perhaps they expect players like Fabio Castro and Scott Atchinson to contribute, and aren’t paying much attention to lefty/righty combinations.

Other Stuff:

• The Mike Lowell deal is dead, John Tomase writes
• Jason Varitek understands his new role, according to Amalie Benjamin
• Brian Raab breaks down the benefits of having two aces
• Chad Finn believes Theo Epstein fooled us all
• Christopher Gasper compares the Red Sox to the Yankees
• The Red Sox are not done shopping, writes Sean McAdam

All right, so I wasn’t as consistent with the picks as I would have liked, so I missed a few weeks, no biggie.  In the last few weeks, the Patriots have played extremely poorly, with a blowout loss to the Saints, a blown lead against the Dolphins, and a terrible showing in a 20-10 victory over the Panthers last week.  Players were sent home from practice, Adalius Thomas all but guaranteed his exit from New England following the season, there are questions about Randy Moss’ effort, and this week, against the Bills, they face a boatload of key injuries.

Against a good running team in Buffalo, the Patriots will be without two of three starting members of the D-line (Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren), and have injuries to the offensive line (Nick Kazcur, Stephen Neal), among other injuries.  It’ll be a tough game for both teams and, given the weather conditions in Buffalo, it will likely be a game dominated by the running attack for both teams.  The Patriots will need to control the ball with Maroney, and Brady has to find a way to get something going offensively.  I’ll even go out on a limb, I’m taking the Bills over the Patriots.  At least that way, if they win, it might feel a little better.  This could be the end of the Patriot run.  No defense, problems in the locker room, it’s all starting to unravel.

Now for the rest of the Week 15 Picks:

JAGS (+3) over Colts
Cowboys (+8) over SAINTS
RAVENS (-10.5) over Bears
Cardinals (-12) over LIONS
Browns (+3) over CHIEFS
Falcons (+6) over JETS
EAGLES (-8) over Niners
Texans (-12.5) over RAMS
TITANS (-4) over Dolphins
BRONCOS (-14) over Raiders
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Bengals
Packers (+2) over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Bucs
Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS

This Week: 1-1
Week 11: 11-5
Season: 90-38

Marco Scutaro

Two weeks ago, the Sox signed their Shorstop–Marco Scutaro to a 2-year, $12.5mm deal with an option for a 3rd year. The Sox hope Scutaro will keep up the numbers he put up last season and hold down the position until prospect Jose Iglesias is ready for the big-time.

Early last week, the Sox made a deal with the Texas Rangers that would send veteran Mike Lowell to Texas in exchange for C/1B/DH Max Ramirez. This deal is still being worked out as both teams are extensively reviewing the medical records of both players involved. Concerns over Lowell’s thumb and Ramirez’s wrists cause this deal to be not yet completed.

The Red Sox also made a couple of key signings on Monday. They inked pitcher John Lackey to a 5-year deal worth upwards of $85mm and outfielder Mike Cameron to a 2-year, $15.5mm deal.

John Lackey

Signing Lackey gives the Sox depth to their rotation for next season and for the future. The Sox now have a Top-3 of Beckett, Lester and Lackey and then Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield to fill out the rest of the rotation. A rotation that no one in baseball can claim to match if everyone is at their best and remains healthy. The signing also gives the Sox some flexibility. They now have insurance in the event they cannot workout an extension with Josh Beckett, who is set to become a free agent after the 2010 season. It also allows the Sox to entertain trades involving Clay Buchholz, a chip many teams covet. Perhaps the Sox now go out and build a package around Buchholz to acquire an Adrian Gonzalez or a Miguel Cabrera.

The signing of Cameron, as well as the earlier trade for Jeremy Hermida all but ensures that Jason Bay will not be a Red Sox next season. After Bay rejected the Sox latest offer, it became clear that the two sides had very differing opinions on Bay’s value. The Sox were just not going to overpay for a player who can only hit fastballs, has poor defense, and whom the Sox have concerns about remaining healthy over a long-term deal. Cameron will become the everyday left-fielder, or possibly center-fielder (if the Sox elect to move Jacoby Ellsbury to left-field or trade him). Cameron also gives Manager Terry Francona some flexibility with his line-ups. If Ellsbury needs a day off, Cameron can move to CF, the same is true with J.D. Drew in RF.

Mike Cameron

The Sox are definitely addressing their pitching and defense to make up for whatever lack of offense their may be. I fully expect them to sign another reliever to fill out the bullpen and probably another versatile player to fill out the bench (I’m thinking Adam Kennedy is a good bet).

Are the signings of Lackey and Cameron a precursor to a bigger deal, possibly a trade for Adrian Gonzalez? We will have to stay tuned and see what the rest of this off-season has in store.

In other baseball news, the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Tigers last week. The real blockbuster of the off-season occurred on Monday, with the Roy Halladay saga finally coming to an end. Halladay has been dealt by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 3-team deal also involving the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will receive Cliff Lee from the Phillies and the Jays will receive prospects from the Mariners.

The Boston Bruins and Marc Savard have agreed upon a 7-year extension worth an average of around $4.2 million per season (for a total of around $30 million). The 7-year deal for the 33-year old Savard will in all likelihood be the final contract of his career. As a Bruins fan, I hope that he retires in the Black and Gold.

Savard has been arguably the best center for the Bruins in his 4 years with the team. His great vision and hands makes him a devastating play-maker, setting up his wingers time and again. He’s often a pass-first player, but once he starts looking for his shot more, he’ll be more of a potent weapon for the Black and Gold.

With Savard, Milan Lucic, and David Krejci all locked up for years to come, the next target for a long-term extension has to be Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron is under team control through the 2010-2011 season, but you would have expect negotiations for a long-term deal to be started at some point in the near future.

Fourth and two. What else is there to say? Fourth and two. Up 17 in the 4th. Fourth and two. Really? That’s how it happened? Fourth and two on your own 28? In Boston, “Fourth and Two” will be remembered similarly to Boone, Dent, Buckner, and the “Super Bowl That Never Happened.” Let’s remember, though, that this was a week 10 game, all of those incidents were playoff games. Phew. The Patriots do have seven games to play, seven games to go on an “Eff You Tour” following “Fourth and Two”. I’m still in shock. Fourth and two.

This week the Patriots take on the Jets, who, by defeating the Patriots earlier this season, embarrassed all of New England. How can a team that terrible be worthy of win over the mighty New England Patriots. Oh, was it Brady’s second game back from reconstructive knee surgery that caused him to miss an entire season. Did he have his binky, Wes Welker? Oh, he didn’t? Wait, didn’t they run into the punter twice in one play and not have anything called? Oh, all right, that’s how that team got a win over the mighty New England Patriots.

The teams are playing at totally different levels now than they did in Week 2. The Patriots passing game is better, their defense (if healthy) is better, and they’re pissed off. The Jets have been in a downward spiral: losing five of their last six games after starting 3-0. I’ll take the mighty Patriots over the Jets coming off an inexcusable loss in Indianapolis. They’ve got something to prove.

Fourth and two.

Now for the rest of the Week 11 picks (as always, home team in CAPS):

CAROLINA over Miami

I like what I’ve seen from Carolina of late.  They look a lot better overall and Miami will have trouble if Ronnie Brown’s injury is serious.  In other news for this game, former Bentley University football star Mackenzy Bernadeau, from my hometown of Waltham, MA, will start tonight at left guard for the Panthers.

DALLAS over Washington

Washington got a win last week.  Good for them.  I like Dallas in this one even if they don’t play particularly well.

DETROIT over Cleveland

GAME OF THE WEEK! These are two of the worst teams in the league, and they’ll probably show it.  If Calvin Johnson is playing, I really like Detroit’s ability to shred the Cleveland defense.  Cleveland’s situation is virtually impossible to fix, I don’t think it’ll be any different this week.

San Francisco over GREEN BAY

Green Bay isn’t that good, plain and simple.  The 49ers have had their moments, and with Frank Gore running in Lambeau, I like their chances in what could be cold Green Bay temperatures.

Pittsburgh over KANSAS CITY

The Steelers struggled against the Bengals last week, but they’re the obvious favorite against the Chiefs.

NY GIANTS over Atlanta

This is a little tough to call since we haven’t seen anything good from the Giants of late. However, they are coming off of a bye week and something tells me they’ll have some things corrected.  If not, their season might be over. On the Atlanta side, Turner suffered an injury in their last game and if that hampers him this week, Atlanta is in trouble.

New Orleans over TAMPA BAY

The Saints haven’t exactly played that well of late, but they’ve found ways to win… and this week, they play the Bucs.  ‘Nuff said.

JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo

Sounds like MJD is getting ready to run a while.  The Bills run defense isn’t good, neither is Trent Edwards.  They also just fired their head coach.  Let’s go ahead and put this one in the loss column (undoubtedly, the Bills will win the game now that I’ve given them zero chance).

Indianapolis over BALTIMORE

How poorly can Indy play this week before the Ravens blow the game?  I want Indy to be beat as often as possible the rest of the way, and at the very least, once.  16-0 belongs to New England… then again, I wouldn’t have any problem with the Colts going 16-0 and getting embarrassed at home by the last 16-0 team… (ok, fine, that’s wishful thinking…what’s this blog called again?)

MINNESOTA over Seattle

Oh the agony. I’m picking the team Favre plays for. The Vikings have played very well all year, I don’t see why that would change against a terrible Seahawks team.

Arizona over ST. LOUIS

Warner makes his return to St. Louis… I wonder what Rams fans will be thinking during the game.  Remember that 1999 Rams team known as “The Greatest Show on Turf”? Warner won multiple MVPs in St. Louid and led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory (and a defeat against New England), and now, the Rams are at the bottom of the league, while Warner is proving to the league that he is still a very good quarterback in this league.  I’m taking the Cards in a landslide.

Cincinatti over OAKLAND

A year ago, this might have been one of the worst matchups of the year.  Now, the Bengals, who returned to Bungals status after signing Larry “The Malcontent” Johnson.  Now, the Bengals are making a push for a first round bye, and a win over Oakland will put them at 8-2 with six games to play.  They’ll at least be .500, even if Cedric Benson is hurt this week.  You have to consider the Russell Factor*.

*The Russell Factor: adjective meaning pure suckitude.

San Diego over DENVER

Denver has lost three in a row and with Chris Simms at the helm in place of the injured Kyle Orton, it will likely move to four in a row.  The winner of this game takes sole possession of the AFC West lead.  Phillip Rivers and the now-not-so-good-Denver-offense should win the game for the Chargers.

Philadelphia over CHICAGO

How many INTs will Cutler throw this week?  I’m going with two. Look for the Eagles to bounce back against a struggling Bears team behind the arm of Donovan McNabb and the legs of LeSean McCoy.

HOUSTON over Tennessee

This is a different Titans team with Vince Young. It’s still hard to believe.  This is a must win for the Texans if they have any hopes in making a run for a wild card spot.  With four losses already, they’ll need to string together several wins in a row.  I’m looking for Matt Schaub to be Schaubtastic this week.

Last Week: 8-7 (Season low)

Season: 79-33

In Week 10, the Patriots battle the 8-0 Indianapolis Colts in Indy. The Colts have won 4 of the last 5 matchups between the two teams, including a 3-point win last season when Brady was out for the year. The Patriots defeated the Colts in 2007 en route to a perfect regular season.

This game is bigger than one might think. If the Colts can beat the Patriots, they’ll put themselves in the driver seat for the #1 seed in the conference and home field throughout the conference playoff games. The Patriots would also fall to 5-3, which too many teams with 2 losses to jump over, essentially meaning that they might kiss their hopes of a first-round by in the playoffs goodbye if they lose tonight.

The matchup indicates a close game of between two of the elite NFL franchises of this decade and features of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history in Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Interestingly enough, in the 4 Super Bowls that the two teams have won this decade, the two teams have played each other in the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl. Interestingly, the Colts and Patriots are first and second in the NFL in defensive points allowed per game,and both teams have a top ten offense.

The fan in me has me picking the Patriots because the Colts have lost Bob Sanders and will be starting two rookies in the secondary. This should give BRady a couple of opportunities down the field with Randy Moss, and perhaps even with Wes Welker on one of his complicated patterns. Additionally, I like the play of the New England defense so far this season and I think they’ll be able to hold off the Colts just enough for the Patriots to squeak out a victory.

And now the rest of the Week 10 picks:
As always, home team in CAPS, and picks made outright

NINERS (-3) over Bears
Well, as of this post, that game already happened, so I won’t count it, I guess.

Falcons (-1.5) over PANTHERS
I’m surprised the Falcons are only favored by 1.5 points. They have three losses on the season, all against some of the top teams in the league (New Orleans, Indianapolis, New England), which indicates they aren’t in the league’s top tier, but they are still better than the Panthers. The Panthers will probably find a way to score with their running game and perhaps keep it close, but I think in the end, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will be too much for the Panthers.

DOLPHINS (-10) over Bucs
The ‘Fins have a great running game, while the Bucs can’t stop anyone on the ground. They also don’t have a strong passing game. That said, Miami should be able to control the clock with their running game and make it will probably be difficult for Tampa to score quickly.

VIKINGS (-16.5) over Lions
The Vikings are playing excellent football this year and the Lions simply are not. That might be an understatement.

Jaguars (+7) over JETS
I just don’t believe in the Jets offense scoring enough points. They would need to cause the Jags to make mistakes to get away with a victory, especially if they’re playing form behind. I like the Jaguars running game and their ability to mix it up with long and short throws offensively. THat should be enough to keep Sanchez from being able to lead the Jets to victory. I hope so, anyway.

TITANS (-7) over Bills
Apparently, VY is good enough to win games in the NFL again. The Bills also stink.

STEELERS (-7) over Bengals
The Steelers lost in Cincinnati earlier this year in a close game. Pittsburgh now has their biggest defensive weapon, Troy Polamalu, back in the lineup and that should be able to help contain the Bengals offense.

Saints (-14) over RAMS
The Rams are terrible. The Saints have gotten off the slow starts the last few weeks, but this is a different story. They should have no problem getting through this game with a win.

Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS
These teams both so bad that I really don’t know who to pick. I’m going with the Chiefs because Kolby Smith is back after being out with an injury for the last year and Matt Cassel might be able to use a good running game to his advantage. Though, he still has nobody to throw to.

CARDINALS (-9) over Seahawks
The Seahawks can’t really beat teams better than them, plus it’s in Arizona where the Cards are significantly better offensively.

Broncos (-3.5) over REDSKINS
It would take a lot for the ‘Skins to win this game. They haven’t really shown anything on the offensive side of the ball and the Broncos have a good pass defense. If the Broncos lose this one, we can probably go ahead and start jumping off of their bandwagon.

Eagles (+1.5) over CHARGERS
These are two evenly matched teams going at it. In the end, I don’t like the SD running game that much (since they’re averaging the fewest yards per carry in the league) and if it turns into a shootout, I think the Eagles have more weapons.

Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
Green Bay really hasn’t been that good. This game is in Lambeau, but it isn’t supposed to be 30 degrees so the Cowboys should be OK. They need to stick with the running game though and keep the pressure off of Romo.

Ravens (-10.5) over BROWNS
Cleveland stinks.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 71-26