The Bruins defeated the Flyers 5-4 in OT on Saturday afternoon. Making his return to the lineup after nearly 2 months following a Grade-2 concussion at the elbow of Matt Cooke, Marc Savard sniped the game-winner passed Brian Boucher.

For video of the goal, click on the picture.

It was a back-and-forth game with stellar goaltending from both sides at key moments to keep their respective teams in the game. Brian Boucher went into God-mode in the opening moments of OT when the Bruins swarmed the net and peppered Boucher with shot after shot. One could have almost foresaw Savard scoring the game-winner. It was poetic justice really. Out for two months, limited ice-time during regulation-time and then BAM! sends the Garden into jubilation with a Game One win.

Lost in all of Savard’s heroics was the fact that Marco Sturm tore his ACL and MCL in his right knee attempting to make a check during his opening shift. He will be gone for the rest of the playoffs. A healthy-scratch in Game 1, Shawn Thornton should return to the lineup. Thornton will add some more grit to the lineup, a key when playing the extremely physical Flyers.

Game 1 was a precursor for things to come; expect a long, hard-fought series out of these two long-time rivals.

Puck drops again at the Garden Monday night at 7pm.

Don’t look now folks, but the Red Sox have won 7 out of their last 9 games after sweeping the Jays in Toronto. Josh Beckett got lit up once again on Monday night, but the Sox were able to outslug the Jays, winning 13-12. On Tuesday, Clay Buchholz showed why the Sox have been keen on keeping him around and believe him to have top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz pitched 8 innings, allowing 1 earned run and struck out 4. Buchholz has been the true ace of the staff in the early going posting a 2-2 record with an ERA of 2.19 in 4 starts. Wednesday, Jon Lester pitched like the ace he is, shutting out the Jays through 7, while striking out 11. Daniel Bard struck out the side in the 8, and Jonathan Papelbon retired the side in order in the 9th to pick up his 7th save of the season. The three pitchers combined for 15 Ks, while only giving up 2 hits. Sox are back to .500 and are now in 3rd place and 5.5 games back of Tampa Bay. John Lackey gets the ball Friday against Baltimore and Daisuke Matsuzaka makes his return to the Sox’ rotation on Saturday.

The Celtics, defeating the Heat 96-86 in Game 5, will face a familiar foe in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Lebron James has been nursing a sore right elbow, so we’ll see how that factors into the series. One thing is certain, this series should be epic and don’t be surprised if it goes to 7 games.

Marc Savard returns from a Grade-2 concussion as the Bruins take on the Flyers in Eastern Conference Semifinals

With the 8th-seeded Montreal Canadiens upsetting top-seeded Washington in 7 games, the Bruins will have home-ice in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals as they play host to the Philadelphia Flyers. On paper, the Bruins should be favored in this series, especially with Tuukka Rask in net and the return of Marc Savard to the lineup. Granted, the Flyers did knock out the #2 seed New Jersey Devils and should not be taken lightly, especially because of their physical style of play. Bruins are going to have hold their own in the toughness department, continue to play strong defensively, and get those timely goals they were able to achieve against Buffalo. If all goes according to plan, expect a Bruins/Penguins matchup to decide who earns the right to play for Lord Stanley’s Cup out of the Eastern Conference. Out West, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Phoenix Coyotes 6-1 in Game 7. In the Semi-Finals, the 5th seeded Red Wings will match-up with top-seeded San Jose, while #2 Chicago matches up with #3 Vancouver. As a hockey fan, I’m hoping for an Original Six match-up in the Stanley Cup Finals pitting the Bruins against either Detroit or Chicago.

Early in the season, the Red Sox have answered their critics in terms of offensive production. Top 10 in runs (82) and Top 5 in HRs (24). No, it’s been their pitching and defense, their supposed strengths that have let them down early on this season. They have a team ERA of 4.70 and have already made 14 errors. All of their starters, excluding Clay Buchholz (2.70) have ERAs in the 5s or higher. Beckett posts a 5.26, Lester posts a 6.23, Lackey a 5.09, and Wakefield a 5.40. Wakefield now moves to the ‘pen with the impending return of Daisuke Matsuzaka to the rotation on Saturday.

The bullpen has also been extremely inconsistent. Lights out one night, blowing up another. Atchison needs to go, plain and simple. Schoeneweis just can’t get it done anymore either. Drop those two and put Michael Bowden and Dustin Richardson or Alan Embree into the ‘pen.

Catchers have struggled throwing out baserunners, no more evident than when Texas stole 9 bases off the Sox. Victor Martinez’s struggles are going to hurt his chances of the Sox re-signing him and him getting a quality deal on the open-market. Look for the Sox to let Ortiz go and make V-Mart the full-time DH.

One bright spot this season has been the resurgence of Jason Varitek offensively. He’s already hit 4 HRs and driven in 8. Perhaps him not playing everyday will keep him fresher and make him able to produce on a more consistent basis. One thing’s for sure though, the Sox need a catcher who can defend, manage the running game, call a quality game, and hit. Luis Exposito may be their best bet, but he’s a few years away from being MLB-ready.

Sox need to get their pitching sorted out, be more consistent defensively, and get key people off the DL, and hopefully they’ll start making a run back towards the top of the standing as the summer progresses. For all the promise with the changes this off-season, 4th place and 5.5 games out of first place is not where I envisioned this team as we head into May.

The Celtics hold a 3-1 series lead over the Heat and they look to close them out on Tuesday. Pierce hit a clutch buzzer-beat to win Game 3. Celtics couldn’t match that effort in Game 4 as Dwayne “Flash” Wade just took over and dominated the Celtics all game long.

Tuukka Rask and Miro Satan helped the Bruins defeat the Buffalo Sabres 4 games to 2 to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals

The Bruins, who struggled all season long at home, won all 3 games at home in the series against the Buffalo Sabres, as the 6th-seeded Bruins knocked the #3 Sabres out of the playoffs in 6 games. David Krejci, Mark Recchi, and Miro Satan led the way offensively for the B’s. The story of the series was goaltending however. Don’t be misled by some of the scores, the goaltending on both sides was absolutely phenomenal especially in Game 4 where the Bruins won 3-2 in Double OT. Tuukka Rask and Ryan Miller kept their teams in the games time and again and for the most part, the goals they let in, they really had no chance of saving. Nice to see a young goaltender like Rask face the pressure of the NHL playoffs and excel. He took over the #1 job from Tim Thomas and the team has played much more solid in front of him. He’s calm in net and his team plays that way in front of him. With the solid play of Rask, and impending return of Marc Savard, the Bruins could be a serious threat to make the Stanley Cup Finals out of the East. The Bruins wait for the Canadiens/Capitals series to conclude to find out their Semi-Final opponent. If the Habs win the series, the B’s play the Flyers. If the Caps win, B’s play the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Penguins. Either series would be a tough challenge, but the B’s showed they can get it done, beating the best goalie in the world in 6 games.

If the Sox can turn it around, and the Bruins and Celts continue to play strong and hot in the playoffs, this could conceivably be a year that Boston wins all 4 major sports titles and truly live up to our name of Title Town USA.

We apologize about the lack of posts recently, school and work tend to get in the way of things sometimes it seems.

First off, congratulations to the New Orleans Saints and the city of New Orleans on the Super Bowl victory. Manning may very well be the top-QB in the NFL, but I’ll take our 3 rings and Brady any day.

Bruins went into a winter hibernation, losing 10-straight before recently turning it around before the Olympic Break, winners of their last 4 and points in their last 6. Tuuka Rask was in net for all 6 of those games. His calm and composed demeanor radiates off of him, making his teammates play the same way in front of him. In contrast, Tim Thomas is constantly looking like a fish out of water and his teammates play nervous and tentative in front of him. It’s a hard pill to swallow, having a $5mm a year back-up goalie, but if the Bruins want to win, they NEED to turn the reigns over completely to Tuuka Rask. In hockey, you turn to the hot-goalie and that has been Tuuka all season long. For the most part, he has kept his team in every game that he has played in, which is all one can ask of their goalie. Tim Thomas played out of his mind last season, winning the Vezina Tropy in the process. But this season, he’s showing why he was a journeyman for all of those years. Fortunately for the Bruins, the Eastern Conference is wide-open this year and their losing streak didn’t hurt them too much in the standings, as they now sit in 7th place following their 4-game winning streak to end the first-half. They have to play like they have been the past 6 games and stay healthy and I think this team could be a sleeper come playoff time.

The Celtics are at the half-way of their season and needless to say, they have been a bit disappointing. Garnett can’t seem to stay healthy and there have been talks about trading away Ray Allen. One bright spot is Paul Pierce winning the 3-point contest during the All-Star weekend. He wanted to be in the competition and he did not disappoint. Also of note from the All-Star festivities, is the continuing downfall of the Slam Dunk contest. I truly believe that Lebron James could bring it back to where it was in its hayday. Back to the Celtics, another bright-spot is the continuing development of Rajon Rondo, whose play this season garnered him an All-Star selection. If the Celts want to compete for a title this season, they’re going to have make a move.

It’s almost baseball season! Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow and position players later in the week. The team improved tremendously defensively in the off-season with the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Mike Cameron. With Jacoby Ellsbury shifting to Left Field, the Sox have an outfield that will cover a lot of ground and not too many balls are going to drop in. Beltre at Third Base will give the Sox a gold-glover and will allow Kevin Youkilis to play 1B full-time. The strength of the team will definitely be the starting pitching with a rotation of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings. Not too many positional battles will be going on this year besides the fight for the 4th outfield spot and the bullpen. Mike Lowell needs to show he’s healthy and will be able to contribute to a team so the Sox can deal him. Jed Lowrie is fighting for a job as well with Bill Hall as the team’s utility-man. One guy to keep an eye on this Spring is Casey Kelly and how fares against some higher, tougher competition. Sox open up the regular season against the Yankees at Fenway Park on April 4th. Here’s hoping to for another solid season from the Sox and hopefully we’ll be seeing them in Soxtober once again.

Wow, already the last week of the regular season. Starting tomorrow, we start rolling the Jim Mora clips. First, time for the picks…

As always, home team in caps:

BILLS (+3) over Colts
Seems like based on what we saw last week, the Colts plan to rest their stars. That means a lot of Painter at QB, which likely does not bode well for the Colts. Bills win by default.

Jags (+1) over BROWNS
The Jaguars are one of those up-and-down teams, and after the 35-7 loss to the Patriots last week, it might be time for them to bounce back. I especially like the Jaguars offense against the Browns D, which teams like to light up on a weekly basis (though maybe not as much of late, but if those guys want Mangini gone, they might lay down–yeah, that’s a joke).

Bears (-3) over LIONS
The Bears have been a disappointment this year, but against the Lions, they should be able tog et soemthing going on the ground and through the air. The Lions will have some fight in them, but I doubt it will workout for them this week.

Falcons (-2.5) over BUCS
Tampa is coming off a win over the Saints, but I don’t think they will have the same type of game. Matty Ice and the rest of the crew should be able to squeeze one out in Tampa.

Niners (-7) over RAMS
Rams lose and they lock up the #1 pick in the draft…

Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
Nobody is sure how much Ricky Williams will play this week, and the Dolphins offense hasn’t been as good without him. This might be a close game, but I think the Steelers pull it out late.

VIKINGS (-9) over Giants
The Vikings have looked awful of late, but maybe this is when they end their losing streak and attempt to take the #2 seed in the process. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Favre throws 4 picks and has a fumble.

PANTHERS (-3) over Saints
The Saints are about to lose their third straight, especially since Brees is expected to play limited minutes.

TEXANS (-8) over Patriots
I like what I saw from the Patriots last week, but I don’t expect them to play injured players for an entire game, that includes Tom Brady. Look for Schaub to go nuts in this one.

Packers (+3.5) over CARDINALS
I picked Green Bay to win that division at the start of the year (bad pick I guess), but they are playing for playoff seeding now, as are the Cardinals. Given injury history for Kurt Warner, he may not play the whole game. In any case, I like the Packers defense and the evolution of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are a dangerous team going forward.

CHARGERS (-4) over Redskins
Rivers isn’t expected to play a whole game, but it’s the ‘Skins. I can’t possibly pick that team to win a game.

Titans (-4.5) over SEAHAWKS
VY and Chris Johnson against the Seahawks D sounds like a tough day for the ‘Hawks.

Ravens (-10.5) over RAIDERS
The Ravens need a win to make the playoffs, so I don’t expect them to lose their focus against a team like Oakland. Ravens defense, coupled with the solid offense they have, should be enough to stop whoever the heck the Raiders are playing at QB.

COWBOYS (-3) over EAGLES
Easily the game of the week (on paper). I like both of these teams, but I just have a feeling this will be one of those days when people think Wade Phillips is a good coach and Tony Romo is a good quarterback. Both teams have a chance at the #2 seed as well.

BRONCOS (-13) over Chiefs
Josh McDaniels against the QB he coached previously sounds like a win for him. However, both of these teams have played poorly this season (Broncos 2-7 in the last 9 after starting 6-0). Broncos find a way to win this game, but still miss the playoffs.

Bengals (+10) over JETS
The Bengals are playing for playoff seeding and they probably want to go into the playoffs with a win. The Jets need a win to get in to the tournament, but the Bengals defense is good enough to make Sanchez make mistakes, which should be enough to help the Bengals pull one out, even if they decide to have Palmer ride the pine at the end of the game.

Inside the numbers: Why resting players has let the Colts down

By Jeffrey Pickette

It is a decision that will be debated for weeks to come.

Faced with the prospects of going 16-0, the 2009 Indianapolis Colts figuratively punted and played it safe yesterday, pulling most of their starters (including Peyton Manning) in the third quarter of a 15-10 game at home against the Jets.

The Colts lost 29-15 with Curtis Painter (who?) at QB for the Colts.  The Colts still have home field throughout the AFC playoffs, but gone is any chance at a perfect 19-0 season.  Was the decision to rest the starters worth it?  Was it the right thing to do? We’ll find out come playoff time.

But for now, I thought I’d take a look at if the Colts’ “organizational philosophy” of resting players actually pays off.  I looked at the 2003-2008 seasons, with 2003 being the first of seven straight 12+ win seasons for the Colts.  All stats and scores were obtained from the pro football reference.com website.

From 2003 to 2008, the Colts rested players in the 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons.  In 05, 07 and 08 the Colts were “one and done” and lost their first playoff game, even though they were probably favored to win each time.  In 04, the Colts won in the Wild Card Round and lost the next week to the Patriots in the Divisional Round.  

On the other hand, the two seasons in which the Colts did not rest players (03 and 06) they enjoyed more postseason success.  In 03, the Colts advanced to the AFC title game before losing to the Patriots and in 06 the Colts went all the way, beating the Bears in the Super Bowl.

Coincidence?  I think not.  While I am largely going off box scores, standings and not watching game film, I still feel comfortable saying that this “organizational philosophy” has largely let the Colts down.  Sure, other factors should be taken into consideration, but there is a definite trend here.

The 2005 season, in which the Colts started the season 13-0, is probably the best parallel to the 2009 Colts.  Having secured home field relatively early that season, the Colts rested many of their starters in the last 2 games of the season.  That seems to be the route the 2009 Colts team is taking.  In 05 the Colts were ousted from the playoffs in their first playoff game after basically going a month between playing meaningful games.  Could the same fate be in store for the 2009 Colts?

Below is a more detailed season-by-season breakdown of the Colts’ resting strategy.
  
2003: 12-4, 1st AFC South, no rest, 2-1 playoffs

Colts starters played in their final game (12/28/03) at Houston, having to secure the division title (the Titans were also 12-4 in ‘03).

The Colts advanced to the AFC Championship that year, beating the Broncos and Chiefs before losing to the Patriots.

2004: 12-4, 1st AFC South, rested final game, 1-1 playoffs

Colts rested against Denver in the final game of the season (1-2-05) since the division was already secured.  The Colts lost to the Broncos in the regular season finale, but played the Broncos the next week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and won. The Colts lost in the Divisional round to the Patriots.

2005: 14-2, 1st AFC South, rested final 2 games, 0-1 playoffs

The 2005 Colts started 13-0 before losing at home to San Diego in week 15.  With the division, a first round bye and home field secured, the Colts rested starters for much of the Seattle game in Week 16 and for almost all of the Cardinals game in week 17.  

The Colts, therefore, basically went from December 18 (date of Chargers game) to January 15 (date of Divisional round game vs. the Steelers) without playing at full speed.  The Colts were upset at home by the Steelers.

2006: 12-4, 1st in AFC South, no rest, 4-0 playoffs, SB champs

The Colts did not rest and went 4-0 in the playoffs en route to Manning’s first Super Bowl championship.

2007: 13-3, 1st in AFC South, rested part of final game, 0-1 playoffs

The Colts secured the 2nd seed, and with it a bye, so they rested starters for part of the regular season finale against the Titans.  The Colts lost that game 16-10 and lost their divisional playoff game a couple of weeks later to the Chargers, making it the second time in three seasons that the Colts were “one and done” in the playoffs.

2008: 12-4, 2nd in AFC South, rested most of final game, 0-1 playoffs

In the 2008 regular season finale, both the Titans (the South champs that year) and the Colts rested in what was a 23-0 snoozer that went in favor of the Colts.  The Colts, the AFC’s#5 seed, had to travel to 8-8 San Diego in the Wild Card Round the next week.  The Colts lost that game 23-17 and were “one and done” for the third time in four seasons.

The Patriots have morphed into a “grind it out” team (read: team struggling to score points), which, coupled with their lackluster defense, does not bode well for the end of the season or for the playoffs (assuming they make it). Against the Jaguars, run stopper Vince Wilfork is out for the Patriots, which means Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run at will against the depleted Patriots D-line, the same way Fred Jackson did early in the game against Buffalo (before the Bills showed us why there were the Bills with stupid coaching). That said, with decent weather conditions in New England, Tom Brady should be able to bounce back against the Jags’ sub-par pass defense. I’ll take the Patriots (-7.5) over the Jaguars.

Now the rest of the Week 16 Picks:

Chargers (+3) over TITANS
FALCONS (-9) over Bills
BENGALS (-13.5) over Chiefs
BROWNS (-3) over Raiders
PACKERS (-14) over Seahawks
Texans (+3) over DOLPHINS
GIANTS (-7) over Panthers
SAINTS (-14) over Bucs
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
CARDINALS (-14) over Rams
NINERS (-12) over Lions
EAGLES (-7) over Broncos
Jets (+6) over COLTS (more of a hope than a prediction)
Cowboys (-6.5) over REDSKINS
BEARS (+7) over Vikings

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 101-43 (Picks not made for all weeks)

Some interesting reports on the news wire today that are worth noting:

Red Sox:

Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox worked in an option to Lackey’s contract that would pay him the league minimum at the end of his contract, should he miss time due to an elbow injury (a pre-existing condition)

WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Red Sox may still be considering signing Jason Bay.This report comes one day after the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman suggested that Jason Bay or Matt Holliday could “fall into the Red Sox’ lap.”

The Globe 10.0 discusses the Mike Lowell situation

Patriots:
ESPNBoston.com’s Mike Reiss has an updated injury report for the upcoming game against the Jaguars

The Boston Globe’s Tony Massarotti has five burning questions for the 2009 Patriots

Fred Taylor commented on the possibility of the Jaguars moving to LA

Tom Brady indicated the Patriots are still in search of an identity on offense

Celtics

Paul Pierce is out with a knee infection

Bruce Bowen breaks down the Celtics-Magic matchup

Bill Simmons expects plenty of NBA trades this season

Bruins

The Globe 10.0 debates the goalie situation in Boston

Following the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron, and the nullification of the Mike Lowell trade, the Red Sox are limited options available to them to improve the team. Here’s how the roster looks right now:

Projected Lineup:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
Dustin Pedroia, 2b
Victor Martinez, C
Kevin Youkilis, 1b
David Ortiz, DH
Mike Lowell, 3b
J.D. Drew, RF
Mike Cameron, CF
Marco Scutaro, SS

Bench

Casey Kotchman, 1b
Jason Varitek, C
Jeremy Hermida, OF
Jed Lowrie, 2b/SS/3b

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen
Tim Wakefield, RHP long reliever/spot starter
Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Dustin Richardson, LHP
Ramon Ramirez, RHP
Hideki Okajima, LHP
Daniel Bard, RHP (setup)
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP (closer)

So now what?

Adrian Gonzalez

The obvious need for this team is another big bat. They don’t have much room to add a player, that was a major aspect to the Mike Lowell trade. Let’s put that aside and assume they can deal with where to play somebody when they sign him. Also, according to Tony Massarotti, the Red Sox payroll is projected to be in excess of $170 million, which means signing another top free agent is likely out of the question. Keep in mind that the luxury tax threshold is $170 million. This makes San Diego Padres 1b Adrian Gonzalez the target. Gonzo is signed for the next two seasons for a total of $9 million ($4.5mm in 2010, $5.5mm option for 2011).

Getting a player of this caliber, a player who has the ability to hit over 40 HRs and drive in well over 100 runs, would be a major addition to the Red Sox lineup. As the lineup stands, they should score enough runs to win the wild card (coupled with their ability to prevent runs through pitching and defense), but let’s face it, Kevin Youkilis shouldn’t be the best hitter on the team (or second best if you think VMart is the best). As of right now, the price tag for Gonzo is extremely high. Jed Hoyer, newly hired GM of the Padres (and former Assistant GM in Boston), is reportedly asking for a package that includes both Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. They would also like either Ryan Westmoreland or Casey Kelly to be included in the trade, as well as other pieces.

We all know what Buchholz and Ellsbury are right now and might become in the future. In San Diego, I fully expect Clay Buchholz to be able to post a sub-3.00 ERA by next season (probably something closer to 4.00 in the AL). He’s probably a #2 or #3 starter at best, but still, that’s a good pitcher there. Ellsbury on the other hand, is. to me, a very special player. Right now, he’s a .300 hitter who get’s on base at around a .350 clip, an excellent baserunner who stole 70 bases in 2009, and also voted the Defensive Player of the Year.  His OBP isn’t great, but in September and October, he was getting on-base at a .388 clip, much higher than his overall numbers indicate.  He’s completed two full seasons in the majors and has improved each year.  Ellsbury is a player who will roam CF (or LF if Mike Cameron is in town) for the next 10 years for someone.  He’s the player the Red Sox want playing with Adrian Gonzalez, to me, trading him would be a mistake (in package of other players), and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo agrees.

Westmoreland and Kelly are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but Epstein was reluctant to trade either of these players in trades for Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay last summer. Westmoreland, an outfielder, is currently the #2 prospect in the Red Sox farm system, as rated by SoxProspects.com.  The scouting report on him is that he’s a patient hitter with above-average power, and has elite speed.  Perhaps he’s the next Ellsbury, but he’s only 19 years old and likely won’t be ready until Ellsbury hits free agency in four years, though it is possible he comes to the majors earlier than that.  Based on the scouting reports, Westmoreland projects to be a player like Johnny Damon, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   Kelly, on the other hand, played shortstop and was a starting pitcher in his first full season in the minor leagues.  Theo Epstein has said that Kelly will focus on pitching now, and experts like Gammons believe Kelly will be in the majors in 2011, with a potential call-up in 2010.  Here’s what SoxProspects.com has to say about Kelly, the Red Sox #1 prospect on their ranking system:

As a pitcher, Kelly’s skills are quite advanced for his age, mixing in a low 90s fastball, a hard 12-6 curveball, and a nice change, all with above average command and control. Sound, smooth mechanics. Fastball has excellent downward movement, and generally sits between 89 and 92 mph. Many scouts project that he’ll sit in the 92-94 mph range after he fills out. Curveball is plus with the potential of being a plus-plus wipeout pitch. It sits around 76-78 mph, but he tends to show it a little too much at times. Changeup sits around 84 mph with a lot of sink. For the most part, he keeps the ball low in the zone, but he’s hittable when he leaves it up. Very good mound presence

Obviously it’s hard to say what Kelly will become since he is only 20 years old, but we have to keep in mind the success rate of the Red Sox prospects. They’ve given us Lester, Papelbon, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis, among others. Those are all legitimate MLB players, so it’s hard to go and trade away talent.

In my opinion, the Red Sox should not consider a trade for Gonzalez that asks them to part with both Ellsbury and Buchholz. However, a package of Buchholz, Westmoreland, OF Josh Reddick, and SP Michael Bowden should be enough to get the deal done. In that package, the Padres would receive a front-of-the-rotation in Buchholz, a major league ready OF in Reddick, the potential of Westmoreland, and a back-of the-rotation starter in Bowden. Perhaps the Sox could add 1b Lars Anderson to the package in place of Bowden, but that is not in their best interest. A trade is a possibility, but it is not close, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

But the question is, do the Red Sox need to add a bat? Former Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi does not believe that is the case.

“I really like the Red Sox the way they’re constituted right now,’’ said Ricciardi. “They’re going to pitch well and catch well. I know we had teams in Toronto where we had the best starting and reliever ERA and we still didn’t make the playoffs. If our lineup had played up to its potential we would have made the playoffs.

“But I think Boston’s lineup is very good. You’ve got tremendous bats with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron . . . and Marco Scutaro is really going to add a lot of offense. Big Papi had an off year and he drove in almost a hundred runs and hit almost 30 homers. [Jacoby] Ellsbury has that speed that is so effective. Some guys can run, but they have no impact. Ellsbury has tremendous impact in that he can disrupt. He can score on a wild pitch, score on a shallow sac fly. He can manufacture a run, not to mention what his speed does on defense and he’s young.

“Personally, if I had a rotation this deep, I wouldn’t move anyone. They also have the resources to go out and probably do a couple of other things. We all know you need seven or eight starters during the year. Last year they went with Brad Penny and John Smoltz and so what they have now is an improvement over that.’’

In my opinion, I think the Red Sox are two bats away from being the favorites for the World Series, however, as constituted, I do think they will make the playoffs and would have the ability to beat anybody in a short series with their pitching staff. Look, if they’re willing to expand the payroll near $190 million, then I’d say they should go ahead and trade Ellsbury and Buchholz for Gonzalez, while signing another starter, and either bringing back Jason Bay or signing Matt Holliday to play left field. A lineup with Scutaro, Pedroia, Martinez, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Holliday/Bay, Ortiz, Drew, and Cameron would be an elite lineup, but they’d rely on power, which may not be in their best interest, and is also highly unlikely given the payroll constraints.

But hey, we can just go get Gonzalez in two years, right?

Other things the Red Sox might look for are a left-handed reliever, and perhaps, they might look for another right-handed bat off the bench, but they would need to clear some roster space to make moves of this nature.  Depth in the bullpen is probably more important.  The best available lefty is probably Darren Olliver, who posted a 2.71 ERA for the Angels last season, but Will Ohman and Ron Villone are among other possibilities.  The Red Sox could also opt to go with Richardson (who I have projected to be in the ‘pen this year), or perhaps they expect players like Fabio Castro and Scott Atchinson to contribute, and aren’t paying much attention to lefty/righty combinations.

Other Stuff:

• The Mike Lowell deal is dead, John Tomase writes
• Jason Varitek understands his new role, according to Amalie Benjamin
• Brian Raab breaks down the benefits of having two aces
• Chad Finn believes Theo Epstein fooled us all
• Christopher Gasper compares the Red Sox to the Yankees
• The Red Sox are not done shopping, writes Sean McAdam

All right, so I wasn’t as consistent with the picks as I would have liked, so I missed a few weeks, no biggie.  In the last few weeks, the Patriots have played extremely poorly, with a blowout loss to the Saints, a blown lead against the Dolphins, and a terrible showing in a 20-10 victory over the Panthers last week.  Players were sent home from practice, Adalius Thomas all but guaranteed his exit from New England following the season, there are questions about Randy Moss’ effort, and this week, against the Bills, they face a boatload of key injuries.

Against a good running team in Buffalo, the Patriots will be without two of three starting members of the D-line (Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren), and have injuries to the offensive line (Nick Kazcur, Stephen Neal), among other injuries.  It’ll be a tough game for both teams and, given the weather conditions in Buffalo, it will likely be a game dominated by the running attack for both teams.  The Patriots will need to control the ball with Maroney, and Brady has to find a way to get something going offensively.  I’ll even go out on a limb, I’m taking the Bills over the Patriots.  At least that way, if they win, it might feel a little better.  This could be the end of the Patriot run.  No defense, problems in the locker room, it’s all starting to unravel.

Now for the rest of the Week 15 Picks:

JAGS (+3) over Colts
Cowboys (+8) over SAINTS
RAVENS (-10.5) over Bears
Cardinals (-12) over LIONS
Browns (+3) over CHIEFS
Falcons (+6) over JETS
EAGLES (-8) over Niners
Texans (-12.5) over RAMS
TITANS (-4) over Dolphins
BRONCOS (-14) over Raiders
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Bengals
Packers (+2) over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Bucs
Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS

This Week: 1-1
Week 11: 11-5
Season: 90-38