Following the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron, and the nullification of the Mike Lowell trade, the Red Sox are limited options available to them to improve the team. Here’s how the roster looks right now:

Projected Lineup:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
Dustin Pedroia, 2b
Victor Martinez, C
Kevin Youkilis, 1b
David Ortiz, DH
Mike Lowell, 3b
J.D. Drew, RF
Mike Cameron, CF
Marco Scutaro, SS

Bench

Casey Kotchman, 1b
Jason Varitek, C
Jeremy Hermida, OF
Jed Lowrie, 2b/SS/3b

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen
Tim Wakefield, RHP long reliever/spot starter
Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Dustin Richardson, LHP
Ramon Ramirez, RHP
Hideki Okajima, LHP
Daniel Bard, RHP (setup)
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP (closer)

So now what?

Adrian Gonzalez

The obvious need for this team is another big bat. They don’t have much room to add a player, that was a major aspect to the Mike Lowell trade. Let’s put that aside and assume they can deal with where to play somebody when they sign him. Also, according to Tony Massarotti, the Red Sox payroll is projected to be in excess of $170 million, which means signing another top free agent is likely out of the question. Keep in mind that the luxury tax threshold is $170 million. This makes San Diego Padres 1b Adrian Gonzalez the target. Gonzo is signed for the next two seasons for a total of $9 million ($4.5mm in 2010, $5.5mm option for 2011).

Getting a player of this caliber, a player who has the ability to hit over 40 HRs and drive in well over 100 runs, would be a major addition to the Red Sox lineup. As the lineup stands, they should score enough runs to win the wild card (coupled with their ability to prevent runs through pitching and defense), but let’s face it, Kevin Youkilis shouldn’t be the best hitter on the team (or second best if you think VMart is the best). As of right now, the price tag for Gonzo is extremely high. Jed Hoyer, newly hired GM of the Padres (and former Assistant GM in Boston), is reportedly asking for a package that includes both Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. They would also like either Ryan Westmoreland or Casey Kelly to be included in the trade, as well as other pieces.

We all know what Buchholz and Ellsbury are right now and might become in the future. In San Diego, I fully expect Clay Buchholz to be able to post a sub-3.00 ERA by next season (probably something closer to 4.00 in the AL). He’s probably a #2 or #3 starter at best, but still, that’s a good pitcher there. Ellsbury on the other hand, is. to me, a very special player. Right now, he’s a .300 hitter who get’s on base at around a .350 clip, an excellent baserunner who stole 70 bases in 2009, and also voted the Defensive Player of the Year.  His OBP isn’t great, but in September and October, he was getting on-base at a .388 clip, much higher than his overall numbers indicate.  He’s completed two full seasons in the majors and has improved each year.  Ellsbury is a player who will roam CF (or LF if Mike Cameron is in town) for the next 10 years for someone.  He’s the player the Red Sox want playing with Adrian Gonzalez, to me, trading him would be a mistake (in package of other players), and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo agrees.

Westmoreland and Kelly are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but Epstein was reluctant to trade either of these players in trades for Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay last summer. Westmoreland, an outfielder, is currently the #2 prospect in the Red Sox farm system, as rated by SoxProspects.com.  The scouting report on him is that he’s a patient hitter with above-average power, and has elite speed.  Perhaps he’s the next Ellsbury, but he’s only 19 years old and likely won’t be ready until Ellsbury hits free agency in four years, though it is possible he comes to the majors earlier than that.  Based on the scouting reports, Westmoreland projects to be a player like Johnny Damon, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   Kelly, on the other hand, played shortstop and was a starting pitcher in his first full season in the minor leagues.  Theo Epstein has said that Kelly will focus on pitching now, and experts like Gammons believe Kelly will be in the majors in 2011, with a potential call-up in 2010.  Here’s what SoxProspects.com has to say about Kelly, the Red Sox #1 prospect on their ranking system:

As a pitcher, Kelly’s skills are quite advanced for his age, mixing in a low 90s fastball, a hard 12-6 curveball, and a nice change, all with above average command and control. Sound, smooth mechanics. Fastball has excellent downward movement, and generally sits between 89 and 92 mph. Many scouts project that he’ll sit in the 92-94 mph range after he fills out. Curveball is plus with the potential of being a plus-plus wipeout pitch. It sits around 76-78 mph, but he tends to show it a little too much at times. Changeup sits around 84 mph with a lot of sink. For the most part, he keeps the ball low in the zone, but he’s hittable when he leaves it up. Very good mound presence

Obviously it’s hard to say what Kelly will become since he is only 20 years old, but we have to keep in mind the success rate of the Red Sox prospects. They’ve given us Lester, Papelbon, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis, among others. Those are all legitimate MLB players, so it’s hard to go and trade away talent.

In my opinion, the Red Sox should not consider a trade for Gonzalez that asks them to part with both Ellsbury and Buchholz. However, a package of Buchholz, Westmoreland, OF Josh Reddick, and SP Michael Bowden should be enough to get the deal done. In that package, the Padres would receive a front-of-the-rotation in Buchholz, a major league ready OF in Reddick, the potential of Westmoreland, and a back-of the-rotation starter in Bowden. Perhaps the Sox could add 1b Lars Anderson to the package in place of Bowden, but that is not in their best interest. A trade is a possibility, but it is not close, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

But the question is, do the Red Sox need to add a bat? Former Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi does not believe that is the case.

“I really like the Red Sox the way they’re constituted right now,’’ said Ricciardi. “They’re going to pitch well and catch well. I know we had teams in Toronto where we had the best starting and reliever ERA and we still didn’t make the playoffs. If our lineup had played up to its potential we would have made the playoffs.

“But I think Boston’s lineup is very good. You’ve got tremendous bats with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron . . . and Marco Scutaro is really going to add a lot of offense. Big Papi had an off year and he drove in almost a hundred runs and hit almost 30 homers. [Jacoby] Ellsbury has that speed that is so effective. Some guys can run, but they have no impact. Ellsbury has tremendous impact in that he can disrupt. He can score on a wild pitch, score on a shallow sac fly. He can manufacture a run, not to mention what his speed does on defense and he’s young.

“Personally, if I had a rotation this deep, I wouldn’t move anyone. They also have the resources to go out and probably do a couple of other things. We all know you need seven or eight starters during the year. Last year they went with Brad Penny and John Smoltz and so what they have now is an improvement over that.’’

In my opinion, I think the Red Sox are two bats away from being the favorites for the World Series, however, as constituted, I do think they will make the playoffs and would have the ability to beat anybody in a short series with their pitching staff. Look, if they’re willing to expand the payroll near $190 million, then I’d say they should go ahead and trade Ellsbury and Buchholz for Gonzalez, while signing another starter, and either bringing back Jason Bay or signing Matt Holliday to play left field. A lineup with Scutaro, Pedroia, Martinez, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Holliday/Bay, Ortiz, Drew, and Cameron would be an elite lineup, but they’d rely on power, which may not be in their best interest, and is also highly unlikely given the payroll constraints.

But hey, we can just go get Gonzalez in two years, right?

Other things the Red Sox might look for are a left-handed reliever, and perhaps, they might look for another right-handed bat off the bench, but they would need to clear some roster space to make moves of this nature.  Depth in the bullpen is probably more important.  The best available lefty is probably Darren Olliver, who posted a 2.71 ERA for the Angels last season, but Will Ohman and Ron Villone are among other possibilities.  The Red Sox could also opt to go with Richardson (who I have projected to be in the ‘pen this year), or perhaps they expect players like Fabio Castro and Scott Atchinson to contribute, and aren’t paying much attention to lefty/righty combinations.

Other Stuff:

• The Mike Lowell deal is dead, John Tomase writes
• Jason Varitek understands his new role, according to Amalie Benjamin
• Brian Raab breaks down the benefits of having two aces
• Chad Finn believes Theo Epstein fooled us all
• Christopher Gasper compares the Red Sox to the Yankees
• The Red Sox are not done shopping, writes Sean McAdam

Marco Scutaro

Two weeks ago, the Sox signed their Shorstop–Marco Scutaro to a 2-year, $12.5mm deal with an option for a 3rd year. The Sox hope Scutaro will keep up the numbers he put up last season and hold down the position until prospect Jose Iglesias is ready for the big-time.

Early last week, the Sox made a deal with the Texas Rangers that would send veteran Mike Lowell to Texas in exchange for C/1B/DH Max Ramirez. This deal is still being worked out as both teams are extensively reviewing the medical records of both players involved. Concerns over Lowell’s thumb and Ramirez’s wrists cause this deal to be not yet completed.

The Red Sox also made a couple of key signings on Monday. They inked pitcher John Lackey to a 5-year deal worth upwards of $85mm and outfielder Mike Cameron to a 2-year, $15.5mm deal.

John Lackey

Signing Lackey gives the Sox depth to their rotation for next season and for the future. The Sox now have a Top-3 of Beckett, Lester and Lackey and then Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield to fill out the rest of the rotation. A rotation that no one in baseball can claim to match if everyone is at their best and remains healthy. The signing also gives the Sox some flexibility. They now have insurance in the event they cannot workout an extension with Josh Beckett, who is set to become a free agent after the 2010 season. It also allows the Sox to entertain trades involving Clay Buchholz, a chip many teams covet. Perhaps the Sox now go out and build a package around Buchholz to acquire an Adrian Gonzalez or a Miguel Cabrera.

The signing of Cameron, as well as the earlier trade for Jeremy Hermida all but ensures that Jason Bay will not be a Red Sox next season. After Bay rejected the Sox latest offer, it became clear that the two sides had very differing opinions on Bay’s value. The Sox were just not going to overpay for a player who can only hit fastballs, has poor defense, and whom the Sox have concerns about remaining healthy over a long-term deal. Cameron will become the everyday left-fielder, or possibly center-fielder (if the Sox elect to move Jacoby Ellsbury to left-field or trade him). Cameron also gives Manager Terry Francona some flexibility with his line-ups. If Ellsbury needs a day off, Cameron can move to CF, the same is true with J.D. Drew in RF.

Mike Cameron

The Sox are definitely addressing their pitching and defense to make up for whatever lack of offense their may be. I fully expect them to sign another reliever to fill out the bullpen and probably another versatile player to fill out the bench (I’m thinking Adam Kennedy is a good bet).

Are the signings of Lackey and Cameron a precursor to a bigger deal, possibly a trade for Adrian Gonzalez? We will have to stay tuned and see what the rest of this off-season has in store.

In other baseball news, the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Tigers last week. The real blockbuster of the off-season occurred on Monday, with the Roy Halladay saga finally coming to an end. Halladay has been dealt by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 3-team deal also involving the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will receive Cliff Lee from the Phillies and the Jays will receive prospects from the Mariners.

The writers of ThisIsTitleTownUSA know you loved our 1st quarter report, so we thought you might want a mid-season report. Sure, we’re slightly past the 81-game mark, but the All-Star break just passed as the Red Sox get ready to play their first game of the unofficial second half of the 2009 season.

Be sure to read the 1st quarter report before you read this one and then compare the two.  You’ll see some 180s.

Let’s get right to business:

Pitchers

* Josh Beckett

After a shaky start where Beckett looked like Kei Igawa, he’s rebounded to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game since early May.  In his first 5 starts, Beckett posted a horrific 7.22 ERA with a 2-2 record, averaging roughly 5.2 innings per start.  Since then, he’s 9-1 in 13 starts with a 2.14 ERA, allowing 22 ER total, as compared to 23 ER in his 5 April starts.  Needless to say, that’s a big turnaround.  On top of that, Beckett is 6-0 following a Red Sox loss and has brought his overall ERA down to 3.35.  During this stretch, Beckett has averaged just over 7 IP per start, a vast improvement over his April numbers.  Since the beginning of May, Josh Beckett has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and if he continues to pitch that way, he should be a candidate for the AL Cy Young.

* Jon Lester

Like Beckett, Lester got off to a rough start this season.  Following his start on May 26th, Lester boasted a measly 6.07 ERA through 10 starts, with just 3 starts where he allowed 2 ER or less.  In his previous 8 starts (May 31 to the All-Star break), Lester has gone on a 5-1 run, allowing just 9 ER in 48 2/3 IP, which translates to a miniscule 1.66 ERA.  During this run, he has averaged 6 innings per start, just a slight improvement over the 5 2/3 IP/start through his first 10 starts.  Hopefully for the Red Sox, Lester continues to pitch well for the rest of the year, including a deep run in the playoffs.

* Tim Wakefield

Wakefield has been solid all year long.  He’s had a couple shaky starts and he’s had some great starts, but overall, he’s been very consistent.  He’s kept the team in every game he’s pitched, which, along with the run support he has received, has contributed to his personal 11-3 record, and the 13-4 record the Red Sox have in games Wakefield starts.  Wakefield was selected to his first All-Star game this season, though he did not pitch in the game. (What the heck was up with that?)

The $4 million the Red Sox pay Wakefield is well worth it.  He’s had a very good 1st half, but concerns remain as he had injury issues in each of the last two seasons down the stretch.

* Brad Penny

Penny has been a solid contributor to this Red Sox team all season long.  Overall, he is 6-3 with a 4.71 ERA, typical of a 4th or 5th starter.  In June, Penny posted a 3.18 ERA, easily the best month of the season so far.  The Red Sox would like to see Penny get deeper into games, as he’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start.  Ideally, Penny can pitch into the 7th inning on a regular basis.  He has had some very good outings, most notably 6 shutout innings vs. the NY Yankees, but he hasn’t exactly pitched as well as Boston media outlets seem to suggest.

* Justin Masterson

As a starter, Masterson was inconsistent and his overall numbers as a starter indicate he was mediocre at best.  In 2 April starts, Masterson allowed a total of two runs while pitching 5 1/3 innings in each start.  In May, however, he had two starts where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 6 runs, and two starts where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs.  As a starter, Masterson notched a 4.59 ERA with a 2-2 record.

As a reliever, Masterson has pitched pretty well, except for 3 outings where he was absolutely shelled.  Hopefully that is just a blip on the radar an he gets back to being the pitcher we saw late last season.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka

Matsuzaka has been horrible this season and is now on the disabled list.  He’s 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA on the season, and it is quite possible that he will not pitch again this season.  After an 18-3 season with a sub-3.00 ERA a year ago, Matsuzaka has been an utter disappointment in 2009.

* John Smoltz

Smoltz’s overall numbers aren’t anything to be overly proud of, but he has shown signs of his old self.  In his last start, he went 5 innings while giving up just 1 run.  Smoltz has shown promise and if he continues to improve his performance, he’ll be an excellent piece to this team come playoff time.

* Javy Lopez

Lopez disappointed this team and because of that, he ended up being designated for assignment by this team.  His numbers were OK, but he seldom came through in tough situations.

* Hunter Jones

Jones showed some promise through his first 4 or 5 outings, but a couple of rough outings resulted in an 8.00 ERA in just 9 IP.  Barring injury, Jones probably won’t be in the majors again until September, provided he does not struggle in the minors.

* Michael Bowden

Michael Bowden

Bowden only had one outing out of the ‘pen this season: a 2 inning, no-hit performance against the Yankees.  He’s pitched well in the minors this year and he will probably be called back up to the big club if there is an injury in the bullpen, or if there are several injuries in the starting rotation (he’s probably behind Buchholz and a healthy Matsuzaka in the pecking order at this point).  Definitely look for him in September when rosters expand.

* Manny Delcarmen

Delcarmen has been very good for the Red Sox this season.  He had a 0.00 ERA in 13 April innings, and has pitched well since then.  He has had a couple of outings where he’s given up some runs, but his 2.41 overall ERA well above average.  Consider this: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, there are only 17 relievers in baseball with at least 100 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.00 or better… the Red Sox have FOUR of them (Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez, Delcarmen).

* Takashi Saito

Saito has a 3.52 ERA on the season, but has not been the most reliable reliever.  He’s given up at least 1 run in 11 of his 30 outings this season.  Saito has only pitched 3 games this month, suggesting one of two things: Terry Francona can’t count on him or the Red Sox felt he needed some rest.  He pitched very will in May, sporting a very solid 1.80 ERA.  There is a chance Saito could be traded by the July 31st trade deadline, but with regular appearances, Saito should be a valuable piece to the Sox bullpen.

* Ramon Ramirez

Ramirez has a 2.33 ERA and 8 holds so far this season.  After an April where Ramirez did not allow an earned run in his 12 1/3 innings of work, he hasn’t fared as well of late.  In April, opponents batted just .132 vs. Ramirez, but that number, along with his ERA, has increased in May and June, and also through the middle of July.  Opponents are hitting .333 off Ramirez in July, raising his overall BAA to .199, which is still very good, but is deceiving because of an off-the-charts month of April. With some rest from the All-Star break, the Red Sox hope Ramirez can return to his dominating self.

* Daniel Bard

Bard has been a pleasant surprise for the Sox this season.  In 20 appearances, Bard has pitched 24 2/3 innings, averaging better than a strikeout per inning, as well as a solid 29:11 K/BB ratio.  Bard has only given up runs in 2 of his 20 outings, and I expect that he will see more action in the second half.  If he continues to perform well, Francona will probably use him in tougher situations.

* Hideki Okajima

Okajima has been consistent all season long.  He leads the team in holds (18), has a 3.32 ERA, and has pitched in 41 games so far this season.  Okajima had an oustanding May in which he pitched 12 1/3 scoreless innings, and at one point, he had 16 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings. Like every reliever, he’s had a couple of tough outings, especially of late, but overall he has been good against righties (.265 BAA) and lights out against lefties (.155 BAA).

* Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon

Papelbon has blown just two saves this season and has 23 saves on the year.  He has not been nearly as dominant this year as he has been in the past.  His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are up, and he’s been more hittable this year as well.  This season, Papelbon has allowed the most walks of his career (18), and has a 41:18 K/BB ratio, while last year he has an incredible 77:8 K/BB ratio.  At this point last season, Papelbon had 7 walks vs. 51 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings pitched, with a low .213 BAA.  The walks have to be a concern, and the slightly higher BAA of .230 this season makes that a bigger concern (putting on more baserunners and allowing more hits).  It is possible though, that Papelbon rebounds in the second half.  Last year, in 28 2/3 post-All-Star break innings, he allowed just 1 walk and struck out 26 batters, which is just incredible.  To be fair, the numbers Papelbon has posted in previous years have been sort of ridiculously good, so perhaps he’s just plain old “great” now.  Though, if he wants to “set the market” when he gets to free agency in a couple of years, he’ll need to regain his previous form and dominate batters.

Batters

* Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury has been up and down the batting order, but has been extremely consistent this season.  His batting average has been near .300 in each full month this season and it’s been relatively similar from month-to-month.  His OBP has also gone up slightly over last season, and he’s already stolen 40 bases, after stealing 50 all of last year.  Ideally, Ellsbury will be back at the lead off spot by the end of the year performing well each night.  If he’s able to keep his average up over .300 and get on base at .350 or better, he should get back into the lead off spot.

* Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia’s power numbers are down from last year, but his average is still over .300 and his OBP is up near .380.  Pedroia’s numbers would be better if not for a terrible stretch while he was hitting out of the lead off spot.  This season is not near his MVP season from a year ago, but Pedroia is hitting .391 in 46 July at-bats, compared to just .222 in 108 June at-bats.

* David Ortiz

David Ortiz

What a season it’s been for David Ortiz.  Through the first two months of the year he looked like he had nothing left and didn’t belong in the majors.  Ortiz hit just 1 homerun though the first two months of the season and hit under .200.  After hitting .143 in May, Ortiz hit .320 in June with 7 homeruns.  Since June 2, Ortiz leads the Red Sox in homeruns (11), RBI (29), and OPS (1.011).  He’s hit a bit of a rough stretch lately, hitting just .200 so far in July, but he has hit 4 homeruns this month.  Hopefully, Ortiz can continue to perform well for the rest of the season.

* Jason Bay

Bay has had a tremendous first half, despite a recent 2 for 30 stretch.  He leads the Red Sox in homeruns (20) and RBI (72).  His average is a mediocre .260 as a result of the extended slump he was in, but he is still a force in the middle of the order.  Pitchers have adjusted to Bay and now it’s Bay’s turn to re-adjust to them.  Bay is on pace for the best offensive season of his career, which should help him in free agency this winter if he and the Red Sox are unable to reach an extension.

* Kevin Youkilis

Youkilis might be the MVP of this team for the first half, despite a 28 game stretch where he hit under .200.  Youkilis has been extremely valuable to this team during Lowell’s time on the DL, since he’s moved across the diamond to the third base flawlessly.  Youkilis hasn’t exactly been himself all season long, but the overall numbers are there.  He’ll be an important part of the Red Sox offense, especially if Mike Lowell is not able perform as well as he did prior to re-injuring his hip.

* Mike Lowell

Mike Lowell has played very well in the first half.  Defensively, he’s lost a little bit, but he catches everything that comes to him.  Lowell hit over .300 in April and May, but struggled in June until he was placed on the DL due to a hip injury.  Lowell’s injury status is a major conern as we start the second half of the season.  His status will determine whether or not the Red Sox make a move to obtain another bat at the trade deadline.

* JD Drew

Drew’s average hasn’t been there this year (hitting just .252), but, as usual, his OBP is very high (.377).  Drew does have 12 homeruns on the season and has been very good defensively.  He’s moved up and down the lineup as the Red Sox have needed used him consistently in spots 1-6 (except #4) in the batting order.  He’s performed the best out of the #5 slot (hitting .295 in 78 at-bats), but has been used at the top of the order since Ellsbury and Ortiz have been moved down in the order.

* Julio Lugo

Lugo has been god awful in the field and will probably he traded or cut very soon.

* Nick Green

Green struggled early in the season, but his defense has improved of late.  This stat is sort of meaningless, but the Red Sox are 42-15 when Nick Green starts at shortstop this season.  Once Jed Lowrie is at 100%, Green will likely move to a reserve role unless Lowrie struggles.

* Jason Varitek

Varitek is not hitting for average, but he has hit for power this season.  Overall, he’s hitting .238 with 13 homeruns on the season, a major improvement over last season.  Additionally, Varitek has done the same job he’s always done behind the plate.

* George Kottaras

His numbers aren’t great, but he’s done a good job catching Wakefield.  We haven’t heard his name much which is probably a good thing (he’s not screwing up).  He’s not a player that will win games for a team, but he also won’t lose them.

* Mark Kotsay

Kotsay missed quite a bit of time this season and has seen an increase in playing time with the injury to Mike Lowell.  Kotsay has had just 67 at-bats since he was activated off the DL on June 2, and has hit .269 in that time.

* Rocco Baldelli

Baldelli has primarily been used in right field when the Red Sox have faced a left-handed pitcher.  He’s hitting .282 in limited at-bats and is a good piece off the bench for this team

___

Overall, the team has played very well.  They have a 3 game lead in the AL East and the second best record in all of baseball.  If the team ever gets healthy, they should play even better.  That is, however, an unlikely scenario.  (more…)

Slugger Comparison

Somebody brought up a point about two players with very similar numbers.  So here, let’s compare them with this year’s numbers, career totals, and 162 game average.

Player A:

Player B:

So what do these numbers tell us?  Only that these two players have very similar career numbers, but Player B, overall, has slightly better numbers.  So who are these guys?  Player A is Jason Bay, Player B is Mark Teixeira; yes it’s a Jason Bay vs. Mark Teixeira post by a Boston fan, go figure.

We all know Teixeira just earned himself a monster contract worth $180 million over 8 years.  Bay is due to be a free agent at the end of the year and he should get paid very well.  He’s not going to get Teixeira money because he’s an outfielder and not a gold glove first basemen, but it is important to realize that the Red Sox do have the slugger they were looking for in Teixeira.  Oh, and one more thing, Jason Bay’s last 11 homeruns have come with men on base.  Last year, 15 of his homeruns were solo shots.  Big difference between Pittsburgh and Boston.

Starting Pitching

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned Friday night from the disabled list and pitched pretty well overall.  If not for another screw up by Julio Lugo, Dice-K would have fared better since a botched double play by Lugo led to a big 4th inning by the Mets.  Through 3 innings last night, Dice-K was dealing, with just one mistake to Gary Sheffield that ended up in the seats.  The 4th inning was a little shaky, but as I mentioned, Dice-K made the pitch he needed to make that led to a would-be double play ball that for some reason Lugo was unable to throw to first.  The final line for Dice-K was 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, and 4 K’s, in 80 pitches.  Overall, that’s an encouraging start from Matsuzaka.  If not for the SS position, maybe Dice-K would have gone another inning and perhaps given up fewer runs.  Matsuzaka was an 18 game winner a year ago and a 15 game winner in his season in the Majors.  The Red Sox need this guy to come back to form and get the results he’s gotten the past 2 seasons.  Hopefully the arm fatigue is behind him and he can get on a roll again.  Let’s not forget that this guy started 10-0 last year.

Jon Lester bounced back a little bit in his last start on Thursday night vs. Toronto.  He went 6 1/3 innings, scattering 8 hits and allowing just 1 ER.  Comparing his last two starts, only real difference is the runs allowed.  Jon Lester was ace-like in the sense that he was able to pitch out of jams without his best stuff.  Guys like Curt Schilling, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez could win without their best tuff on any given night by finding a way to get outs.  Thursday night there wasn’t that one big inning where everything falls apart for Lester, there weren’t any major mental errors, it was just a pitcher battling and winning the battle.   An encouraging sign for Jon Lester, something he will need to build off of, of course.  Remember, it wasn’t until the middle of May last year when Jon Lester really got it going and became the true ace of the Red Sox staff while Josh Beckett struggled.  The Red Sox have been carried by their bullpen and their offense so far this season, but if the pitching gets on track they can become the favorties down the stretch.

The Shortstop Dilemma

As mentioned above in the Dice-K analysis, another Julio Lugo blunder cost the Sox last night.  I think I can count 2 or 3 games this year where the SS position directly cost the Red Sox the game this year.  Last night and the game vs. Seattle when Nick Green made a throwing error in the 9th inning come to mind.  The other thing is that Lugo and Green don’t have good range at SS.  Lugo is coming off a major injury where he had surgery on a torn meniscus.  That’s going to decrease mobility.  But what other options do the Red Sox have for this position?  They have Gil Velasquez down in AAA, but he’s not much better.  They’re waiting for Jed Lowrie to recover from wrist surgery (which should be another 6 weeks or so), but we still don’t know if he is the answer at shortstop.

So that brings up trades as another possibility.  Who might be available?  What are their options?

A couple of names come to mind: Jack Wilson, Michael Young, and Yuniesky Betancourt.  Another player that could be available and could play SS is Freddy Sanchez.

Jack Wilson is probably the easiest to get, but he will probably have at least a few suitors.  Michael Young has $64 million and good prospects attached to him, which means he probably isn’t someone the Red Sox would be looking at, especially if he’s already been moved to 3b, though that might have more to do with the talent of Elvis Andrus than the lack of talent of Micahel Young.  Betancourt is also a terrible defensive shortstop.  He has 8 errors already this year and has had 20 or more each of the last few years, which means he wouldn’t be a solution for the Red Sox.  Freddy Sanchez can play three positions pretty well: 2b, SS, and 3b.  He was traded by Boston for Jeff Suppan several years ago and would probably be a good fit for this team.  He was hurt two years ago and had problems with his shoulder, so there may be concerns when it comes to his health.

So what does this mean?  The Red Sox are basically stuck with whatever they have at SS unless they find a good minor leaguer somewhere else or give up a ton to get an established SS like Hanley Ramirez (he’s not going anywhere though).

David Ortiz hit his first homerun of the season today, his first since September 22, 2008. When the ball left the yard, Sox fans across TitleTown let out a sigh of relief and jumped for joy in unison.  The aftershock of Ortiz’s homerun was a shot by Jason Bay, and a homerun by Mike Lowell, all three in the same inning. Jason Varitek also hit two homeruns in the game, as he now has 7 homeruns, 6 of them Fenway Park, after hitting just 4 homers at the Fens last season. In all, the Sox lit up the Blue Jays for 8 runs, while Brad Penny and the Sox ‘pen held the Jays to just 3 runs.

An important thing from tonight was seeing Brad Penny put together another quality outing.  The Sox starting staff has struggled mightily all season, with the exception of Tim Wakefield, yet they’re just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL East.  Other than his start on April 17, where he gave up 8 runs over 3 innings, and his April 28 start where he gave up 7 runs (4 earned) over 2 2/3 innings, Penny has put together quality outings that have given the Sox a chance to win games.  Overall, Penny is 4-1 with an ERA over 6.  In 6 of his 8 starts, Penny has tossed 6+ innings in each outing and given up 4 ER or less in each start.  I’d say that’s about what you would want from a 5th starter.

Tomorrow night, the Sox will look to sweep the Blue Jays who entered the series up 3.5 games in the AL East.  A sweep here would sort of make talks of the Jays being here in the end die down, at least a little bit.  However, it’ll take a strong effort from Jon Lester to get that done.  Lester has put together quality innings this season, however, it seems he has not been able to recover after one bad thing happens in a game.  A prime example would be the would-be double play where the ball was grounded to Lester and instead of throwing to 2nd base, he double pumped and then threw to first.  After that, things fell apart for Lester and he ended up giving up 5 runs in just 5.2 innings of work.  Overall, he has allowed 5 ER or more in 5 of his 8 starts, not even close to what we expected of him coming into the season. The bright side is that he has had good stuff and has pitched well for stretches in almost every game he’s pitched, but at one point or another, he loses his composure and everything unravels on him.  Without Jon Lester at the top of his game, as well as Josh Beckett (who has also struggled), we can forget about the playoffs this year.

The Celtics and Bruins are hitting the links and the Pats are about two months from the start of training camp, so it’s basically all-Sox, all-the-time.

(Sorry, the prospect of a Lebron vs. Kobe finals matchup doesn’t do it for me…not to get too sidetracked here, but can you imagine watching ESPN for those two weeks during the finals?  Not interested in a Lebron-Kobe love-fest; too predictable. )

As I was saying, it’s all about the Sox.

Thirty-nine games into the season, at 23-16 this is a solid start, considering the number of injuries the team has had to deal with.  So, without further ado, here is the good, the bad, and the ugly from the first 1/4 of the 2009 season.

The Good

* Jason Bay…Manny who? Boston knew they would be getting a better defender when they swapped Manny for Bay in a three-team deal at the trading deadline last season, but Bay has actually been Manny-esque with the bat.  Hovering around .300, Bay leads the team in HR (11) and RBI (40). He has also come up “clutch” in several big spots already this season, arguably none bigger than his 9th inning, game-tying 2-run HR off Mariano Rivera in the first meeting this season between the Sox and Yanks back on 4/24.

* The bullpen…save for the jettisoned Javy Lopez, this may be the deepest pen Theo has assembled during his tenure here.  Papelbon does his usual lights-out job at anchoring the pen, but the guys who set up for him are top-notch as well.  Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp…looks like a theft to me.  Already with four wins, Ramirez sports an ERA of 0.86 and has surrendered only 9 hits in 21 innings of work.  Delcarmen, Saito, and Okajima (especially as of late) continue to provide quality relief.  Add Masterson back into the mix and this pen is stacked.

The only concern remains is this pen over-exerted?  It certainly wasn’t last night (8 innings from Wakefield) but Ramirez and Okajima already have appeared in half of the team’s games and are on pace for around 80 appearances.  What is now the team’s biggest strength could become a liability with too much wear-and-tear.

* Wakefield…The elder statesman is pitching like it is 1995 (16-8, 2.95 ERA that season).  If his last outing against the Angels was a cause for concern (4.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER) he certainly quieted his critics with an absolute gem last night against the first-place Blue Jays.  Just 97 pitches to get through 8 innings and he allowed only one ER while scattering five hits…just what the Sox needed after returning from a tough West Coast trip.

The Bad

* The Aces (Beckett and Lester)…Lester has allowed 76 base runners in 47 IP.  Opponents have hit 10 HR against the southpaw.  His ERA is well-north of 6 (6.51).  So far he kind of looks like a left-handed version of  Pat Rapp.

Beckett’s not much better.  79 base runners in 47.2 IP; 5.85 ERA…dare I say Mark Portugal?

The problem here has been consistency.  A few great innings marred by one terrible frame.  The feeling, here at least, is that both will turn it around and post sub-4 ERAs.  Beckett may have turned the corner with his last start vs. Seattle (7 IP, 2 ER)  But for now, Sox fans are left to wonder, and especially about Lester.  Is his performace the result of fatigue?  His innings jumped from 63 in 2007 to 210 last year (postseason not included).  Verducci effect? Time will tell.

To state the obvious, the bottom line is that the Sox will need both to pitch at ace level if the team wants to return to the World Series.

* Dice-K…nine runs in 6.1 IP…and the team spent 50 million just to talk to him?  Hey, it could be worse; ask the Yanks about Wang.  Sidelined since April 15, Dice-K has pitched well in his rehab outings with the Paw Sox and is slated to return to the big league club this Friday.  The team can only hope that he will return to form after this hiatus.  The fact the team is 23-16 without Dice-K and with pedestrian performances from Beckett and Lester is a testament to this team’s depth.

The Ugly

* Nick Green’s defense…Entering last night’s game he was more than serviceable at the plate, hitting .302 with 1 HR/13 RBI.  That’s not the problem since it’s hard to expect that Jed Lowrie would have topped these numbers.  But the defense is a different story.  GrEEEEEEEEn has committed eight errors at shortstop and has started to become a defensive liability.   No error was more costly than his blunder against Seattle late in the game last Sunday.  When Julio Lugo is the better defensive option,…well, how should I put it?  It’s like saying that if Brian Scalabrine can’t go tonight, the Celtics have no chance at winning.

* BIG PAPI…Big Papi hasn’t hit a HR since George W. Bush was in the White House.  But, honestly it feels like he hasn’t hit a HR since Daddy Bush’s term.  He was 0-3 with a walk in his return to the line-up last night vs. Toronto, lowering his average to just .203.  The power and production simply isn’t there right now.  How long he remains in the number three hole remains to be seen.  Big Papi has done more for this franchise than was ever expected of him when he was signed as a free agent from the Twins in 2003.  But, if this anemic production continues, the Sox will need to add another bat.  Yes, they could use some pop, but just having somebody get on base would be a start.  With Youkilis (an omission from the good category, as is Pedroia), Bay, Drew, and Lowell hitting behind Ortiz, a below-average number three hitter will continue to take away RBI opportunities from the heart of the lineup.

IN SHORT…There’s a lot to be excited about, but for now the performances of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Ortiz may just determine how far this team can go.  These four players may just make or break the summer in Boston.