Following the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron, and the nullification of the Mike Lowell trade, the Red Sox are limited options available to them to improve the team. Here’s how the roster looks right now:

Projected Lineup:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
Dustin Pedroia, 2b
Victor Martinez, C
Kevin Youkilis, 1b
David Ortiz, DH
Mike Lowell, 3b
J.D. Drew, RF
Mike Cameron, CF
Marco Scutaro, SS

Bench

Casey Kotchman, 1b
Jason Varitek, C
Jeremy Hermida, OF
Jed Lowrie, 2b/SS/3b

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen
Tim Wakefield, RHP long reliever/spot starter
Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Dustin Richardson, LHP
Ramon Ramirez, RHP
Hideki Okajima, LHP
Daniel Bard, RHP (setup)
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP (closer)

So now what?

Adrian Gonzalez

The obvious need for this team is another big bat. They don’t have much room to add a player, that was a major aspect to the Mike Lowell trade. Let’s put that aside and assume they can deal with where to play somebody when they sign him. Also, according to Tony Massarotti, the Red Sox payroll is projected to be in excess of $170 million, which means signing another top free agent is likely out of the question. Keep in mind that the luxury tax threshold is $170 million. This makes San Diego Padres 1b Adrian Gonzalez the target. Gonzo is signed for the next two seasons for a total of $9 million ($4.5mm in 2010, $5.5mm option for 2011).

Getting a player of this caliber, a player who has the ability to hit over 40 HRs and drive in well over 100 runs, would be a major addition to the Red Sox lineup. As the lineup stands, they should score enough runs to win the wild card (coupled with their ability to prevent runs through pitching and defense), but let’s face it, Kevin Youkilis shouldn’t be the best hitter on the team (or second best if you think VMart is the best). As of right now, the price tag for Gonzo is extremely high. Jed Hoyer, newly hired GM of the Padres (and former Assistant GM in Boston), is reportedly asking for a package that includes both Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. They would also like either Ryan Westmoreland or Casey Kelly to be included in the trade, as well as other pieces.

We all know what Buchholz and Ellsbury are right now and might become in the future. In San Diego, I fully expect Clay Buchholz to be able to post a sub-3.00 ERA by next season (probably something closer to 4.00 in the AL). He’s probably a #2 or #3 starter at best, but still, that’s a good pitcher there. Ellsbury on the other hand, is. to me, a very special player. Right now, he’s a .300 hitter who get’s on base at around a .350 clip, an excellent baserunner who stole 70 bases in 2009, and also voted the Defensive Player of the Year.  His OBP isn’t great, but in September and October, he was getting on-base at a .388 clip, much higher than his overall numbers indicate.  He’s completed two full seasons in the majors and has improved each year.  Ellsbury is a player who will roam CF (or LF if Mike Cameron is in town) for the next 10 years for someone.  He’s the player the Red Sox want playing with Adrian Gonzalez, to me, trading him would be a mistake (in package of other players), and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo agrees.

Westmoreland and Kelly are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but Epstein was reluctant to trade either of these players in trades for Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay last summer. Westmoreland, an outfielder, is currently the #2 prospect in the Red Sox farm system, as rated by SoxProspects.com.  The scouting report on him is that he’s a patient hitter with above-average power, and has elite speed.  Perhaps he’s the next Ellsbury, but he’s only 19 years old and likely won’t be ready until Ellsbury hits free agency in four years, though it is possible he comes to the majors earlier than that.  Based on the scouting reports, Westmoreland projects to be a player like Johnny Damon, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   Kelly, on the other hand, played shortstop and was a starting pitcher in his first full season in the minor leagues.  Theo Epstein has said that Kelly will focus on pitching now, and experts like Gammons believe Kelly will be in the majors in 2011, with a potential call-up in 2010.  Here’s what SoxProspects.com has to say about Kelly, the Red Sox #1 prospect on their ranking system:

As a pitcher, Kelly’s skills are quite advanced for his age, mixing in a low 90s fastball, a hard 12-6 curveball, and a nice change, all with above average command and control. Sound, smooth mechanics. Fastball has excellent downward movement, and generally sits between 89 and 92 mph. Many scouts project that he’ll sit in the 92-94 mph range after he fills out. Curveball is plus with the potential of being a plus-plus wipeout pitch. It sits around 76-78 mph, but he tends to show it a little too much at times. Changeup sits around 84 mph with a lot of sink. For the most part, he keeps the ball low in the zone, but he’s hittable when he leaves it up. Very good mound presence

Obviously it’s hard to say what Kelly will become since he is only 20 years old, but we have to keep in mind the success rate of the Red Sox prospects. They’ve given us Lester, Papelbon, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis, among others. Those are all legitimate MLB players, so it’s hard to go and trade away talent.

In my opinion, the Red Sox should not consider a trade for Gonzalez that asks them to part with both Ellsbury and Buchholz. However, a package of Buchholz, Westmoreland, OF Josh Reddick, and SP Michael Bowden should be enough to get the deal done. In that package, the Padres would receive a front-of-the-rotation in Buchholz, a major league ready OF in Reddick, the potential of Westmoreland, and a back-of the-rotation starter in Bowden. Perhaps the Sox could add 1b Lars Anderson to the package in place of Bowden, but that is not in their best interest. A trade is a possibility, but it is not close, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

But the question is, do the Red Sox need to add a bat? Former Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi does not believe that is the case.

“I really like the Red Sox the way they’re constituted right now,’’ said Ricciardi. “They’re going to pitch well and catch well. I know we had teams in Toronto where we had the best starting and reliever ERA and we still didn’t make the playoffs. If our lineup had played up to its potential we would have made the playoffs.

“But I think Boston’s lineup is very good. You’ve got tremendous bats with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron . . . and Marco Scutaro is really going to add a lot of offense. Big Papi had an off year and he drove in almost a hundred runs and hit almost 30 homers. [Jacoby] Ellsbury has that speed that is so effective. Some guys can run, but they have no impact. Ellsbury has tremendous impact in that he can disrupt. He can score on a wild pitch, score on a shallow sac fly. He can manufacture a run, not to mention what his speed does on defense and he’s young.

“Personally, if I had a rotation this deep, I wouldn’t move anyone. They also have the resources to go out and probably do a couple of other things. We all know you need seven or eight starters during the year. Last year they went with Brad Penny and John Smoltz and so what they have now is an improvement over that.’’

In my opinion, I think the Red Sox are two bats away from being the favorites for the World Series, however, as constituted, I do think they will make the playoffs and would have the ability to beat anybody in a short series with their pitching staff. Look, if they’re willing to expand the payroll near $190 million, then I’d say they should go ahead and trade Ellsbury and Buchholz for Gonzalez, while signing another starter, and either bringing back Jason Bay or signing Matt Holliday to play left field. A lineup with Scutaro, Pedroia, Martinez, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Holliday/Bay, Ortiz, Drew, and Cameron would be an elite lineup, but they’d rely on power, which may not be in their best interest, and is also highly unlikely given the payroll constraints.

But hey, we can just go get Gonzalez in two years, right?

Other things the Red Sox might look for are a left-handed reliever, and perhaps, they might look for another right-handed bat off the bench, but they would need to clear some roster space to make moves of this nature.  Depth in the bullpen is probably more important.  The best available lefty is probably Darren Olliver, who posted a 2.71 ERA for the Angels last season, but Will Ohman and Ron Villone are among other possibilities.  The Red Sox could also opt to go with Richardson (who I have projected to be in the ‘pen this year), or perhaps they expect players like Fabio Castro and Scott Atchinson to contribute, and aren’t paying much attention to lefty/righty combinations.

Other Stuff:

• The Mike Lowell deal is dead, John Tomase writes
• Jason Varitek understands his new role, according to Amalie Benjamin
• Brian Raab breaks down the benefits of having two aces
• Chad Finn believes Theo Epstein fooled us all
• Christopher Gasper compares the Red Sox to the Yankees
• The Red Sox are not done shopping, writes Sean McAdam

A lot has happened since we our last post in July:

• The Red Sox traded for Victor Martinez, sending youngster Justin Masterson and low-level prospects to Cleveland.
• The offense sputtered
• The pitching was subpar
• The bullpen imploded
• The offense came to life
• The pitching came back to life

All of that happened in roughly that same order.  There were times this summer that Red Sox fans and MLB experts thought this team was not going to make the playoffs, or if they did, they’d lose in the first round.  However, as it stands now, the Red Sox have 7 fewer losses than Texas who trails them in the Wild Card race, have the second best record in the American League (behind the Yankees) and third best in all of baseball (Yankees, Dodgers).

The Red Sox are in the midst of a home stand where they have swept the Tampa Bay Rays and taken the first two games from the Angels, with one of them coming in dramatic fashion.  The two games against the Angels, in particular, looked like playoff games the two teams have had where both teams play well during the game, the Angels make a mistake or get a bad break, and then the Red Sox win.

Last night’s 9-8 victory was one of the most exciting games of the season; a back-and-forth affair that lasted over 4 hours, featured 17 runs scored with just one home run in the game (a solo shot at that), errors in the field leading to a total of 7 unearned runs, a strike that was called a ball to walk-in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th, and flare by a man known for his defensive prowess that drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th.  Now THAT is baseball at its best — unless you like pitching duels.

The road ahead for the Red Sox is features one more game against the Angels, a three game series in the Bronx, and the remainder of the schedule is largely against cellar-dwellers of the American League.  The postseason isn’t locked up quite yet, but it certainly looks promising.

Two things for the Sox right now are their offense and starting pitching.  The team seems to be out of it’s mid-summer funk where they couldn’t score any runs.  They’ve consistently been putting up runs and have been getting some timely hitting of late.  With starting pitching, Jon Lester has been phenomenal since the middle of May and Clay Buchholz has emerged as a true #3 starter and has now streaked together some very good outings.  Josh Beckett had some trouble with the long ball recently, but his last two starts indicate that he may be back on track.  The surprise of the summer has to be Daisuke Matsuzaka’s performance the other night when he came off the DL and tossed 6-shutout innings versus the Angels, who just happen to have the best team batting average in the AL and the second most runs scored in the AL.

The bullpen, however, has been shaky for the Red Sox.  Jonathan Papelbon continues to be the heart-attack-closer he’s been all year, while Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Hideki Okajima have been hit-or-miss of late.  Daniel Bard has also come back to earth a little bit after being dominant for stretches in the middle of the summer.  The guy can still throw 100mph, but he’s learning that major league hitters can hit a fastball no matter how fast it is if they know it’s coming and where it’s going.  The key to the postseason is likely the bullpen, we’ve seen what a good ‘pen can do when they have a lead late in games, as seen in previous postseasons.

All in all, it seems like the Red Sox are starting to get into their groove, though that might just be because they’re playing at home.  The Red Sox need to get the Wild Card locked up as soon as possible so they can give rest to the players who need it, as well as set up their pitching rotation for the postseason, something that has benefited them in the past.  With the amount of innings on the shoulders of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz, a little bit of rest going into the postseason would likely be a good thing.

The writers of ThisIsTitleTownUSA know you loved our 1st quarter report, so we thought you might want a mid-season report. Sure, we’re slightly past the 81-game mark, but the All-Star break just passed as the Red Sox get ready to play their first game of the unofficial second half of the 2009 season.

Be sure to read the 1st quarter report before you read this one and then compare the two.  You’ll see some 180s.

Let’s get right to business:

Pitchers

* Josh Beckett

After a shaky start where Beckett looked like Kei Igawa, he’s rebounded to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game since early May.  In his first 5 starts, Beckett posted a horrific 7.22 ERA with a 2-2 record, averaging roughly 5.2 innings per start.  Since then, he’s 9-1 in 13 starts with a 2.14 ERA, allowing 22 ER total, as compared to 23 ER in his 5 April starts.  Needless to say, that’s a big turnaround.  On top of that, Beckett is 6-0 following a Red Sox loss and has brought his overall ERA down to 3.35.  During this stretch, Beckett has averaged just over 7 IP per start, a vast improvement over his April numbers.  Since the beginning of May, Josh Beckett has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and if he continues to pitch that way, he should be a candidate for the AL Cy Young.

* Jon Lester

Like Beckett, Lester got off to a rough start this season.  Following his start on May 26th, Lester boasted a measly 6.07 ERA through 10 starts, with just 3 starts where he allowed 2 ER or less.  In his previous 8 starts (May 31 to the All-Star break), Lester has gone on a 5-1 run, allowing just 9 ER in 48 2/3 IP, which translates to a miniscule 1.66 ERA.  During this run, he has averaged 6 innings per start, just a slight improvement over the 5 2/3 IP/start through his first 10 starts.  Hopefully for the Red Sox, Lester continues to pitch well for the rest of the year, including a deep run in the playoffs.

* Tim Wakefield

Wakefield has been solid all year long.  He’s had a couple shaky starts and he’s had some great starts, but overall, he’s been very consistent.  He’s kept the team in every game he’s pitched, which, along with the run support he has received, has contributed to his personal 11-3 record, and the 13-4 record the Red Sox have in games Wakefield starts.  Wakefield was selected to his first All-Star game this season, though he did not pitch in the game. (What the heck was up with that?)

The $4 million the Red Sox pay Wakefield is well worth it.  He’s had a very good 1st half, but concerns remain as he had injury issues in each of the last two seasons down the stretch.

* Brad Penny

Penny has been a solid contributor to this Red Sox team all season long.  Overall, he is 6-3 with a 4.71 ERA, typical of a 4th or 5th starter.  In June, Penny posted a 3.18 ERA, easily the best month of the season so far.  The Red Sox would like to see Penny get deeper into games, as he’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start.  Ideally, Penny can pitch into the 7th inning on a regular basis.  He has had some very good outings, most notably 6 shutout innings vs. the NY Yankees, but he hasn’t exactly pitched as well as Boston media outlets seem to suggest.

* Justin Masterson

As a starter, Masterson was inconsistent and his overall numbers as a starter indicate he was mediocre at best.  In 2 April starts, Masterson allowed a total of two runs while pitching 5 1/3 innings in each start.  In May, however, he had two starts where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 6 runs, and two starts where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs.  As a starter, Masterson notched a 4.59 ERA with a 2-2 record.

As a reliever, Masterson has pitched pretty well, except for 3 outings where he was absolutely shelled.  Hopefully that is just a blip on the radar an he gets back to being the pitcher we saw late last season.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka

Matsuzaka has been horrible this season and is now on the disabled list.  He’s 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA on the season, and it is quite possible that he will not pitch again this season.  After an 18-3 season with a sub-3.00 ERA a year ago, Matsuzaka has been an utter disappointment in 2009.

* John Smoltz

Smoltz’s overall numbers aren’t anything to be overly proud of, but he has shown signs of his old self.  In his last start, he went 5 innings while giving up just 1 run.  Smoltz has shown promise and if he continues to improve his performance, he’ll be an excellent piece to this team come playoff time.

* Javy Lopez

Lopez disappointed this team and because of that, he ended up being designated for assignment by this team.  His numbers were OK, but he seldom came through in tough situations.

* Hunter Jones

Jones showed some promise through his first 4 or 5 outings, but a couple of rough outings resulted in an 8.00 ERA in just 9 IP.  Barring injury, Jones probably won’t be in the majors again until September, provided he does not struggle in the minors.

* Michael Bowden

Michael Bowden

Bowden only had one outing out of the ‘pen this season: a 2 inning, no-hit performance against the Yankees.  He’s pitched well in the minors this year and he will probably be called back up to the big club if there is an injury in the bullpen, or if there are several injuries in the starting rotation (he’s probably behind Buchholz and a healthy Matsuzaka in the pecking order at this point).  Definitely look for him in September when rosters expand.

* Manny Delcarmen

Delcarmen has been very good for the Red Sox this season.  He had a 0.00 ERA in 13 April innings, and has pitched well since then.  He has had a couple of outings where he’s given up some runs, but his 2.41 overall ERA well above average.  Consider this: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, there are only 17 relievers in baseball with at least 100 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.00 or better… the Red Sox have FOUR of them (Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez, Delcarmen).

* Takashi Saito

Saito has a 3.52 ERA on the season, but has not been the most reliable reliever.  He’s given up at least 1 run in 11 of his 30 outings this season.  Saito has only pitched 3 games this month, suggesting one of two things: Terry Francona can’t count on him or the Red Sox felt he needed some rest.  He pitched very will in May, sporting a very solid 1.80 ERA.  There is a chance Saito could be traded by the July 31st trade deadline, but with regular appearances, Saito should be a valuable piece to the Sox bullpen.

* Ramon Ramirez

Ramirez has a 2.33 ERA and 8 holds so far this season.  After an April where Ramirez did not allow an earned run in his 12 1/3 innings of work, he hasn’t fared as well of late.  In April, opponents batted just .132 vs. Ramirez, but that number, along with his ERA, has increased in May and June, and also through the middle of July.  Opponents are hitting .333 off Ramirez in July, raising his overall BAA to .199, which is still very good, but is deceiving because of an off-the-charts month of April. With some rest from the All-Star break, the Red Sox hope Ramirez can return to his dominating self.

* Daniel Bard

Bard has been a pleasant surprise for the Sox this season.  In 20 appearances, Bard has pitched 24 2/3 innings, averaging better than a strikeout per inning, as well as a solid 29:11 K/BB ratio.  Bard has only given up runs in 2 of his 20 outings, and I expect that he will see more action in the second half.  If he continues to perform well, Francona will probably use him in tougher situations.

* Hideki Okajima

Okajima has been consistent all season long.  He leads the team in holds (18), has a 3.32 ERA, and has pitched in 41 games so far this season.  Okajima had an oustanding May in which he pitched 12 1/3 scoreless innings, and at one point, he had 16 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings. Like every reliever, he’s had a couple of tough outings, especially of late, but overall he has been good against righties (.265 BAA) and lights out against lefties (.155 BAA).

* Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon

Papelbon has blown just two saves this season and has 23 saves on the year.  He has not been nearly as dominant this year as he has been in the past.  His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are up, and he’s been more hittable this year as well.  This season, Papelbon has allowed the most walks of his career (18), and has a 41:18 K/BB ratio, while last year he has an incredible 77:8 K/BB ratio.  At this point last season, Papelbon had 7 walks vs. 51 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings pitched, with a low .213 BAA.  The walks have to be a concern, and the slightly higher BAA of .230 this season makes that a bigger concern (putting on more baserunners and allowing more hits).  It is possible though, that Papelbon rebounds in the second half.  Last year, in 28 2/3 post-All-Star break innings, he allowed just 1 walk and struck out 26 batters, which is just incredible.  To be fair, the numbers Papelbon has posted in previous years have been sort of ridiculously good, so perhaps he’s just plain old “great” now.  Though, if he wants to “set the market” when he gets to free agency in a couple of years, he’ll need to regain his previous form and dominate batters.

Batters

* Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury has been up and down the batting order, but has been extremely consistent this season.  His batting average has been near .300 in each full month this season and it’s been relatively similar from month-to-month.  His OBP has also gone up slightly over last season, and he’s already stolen 40 bases, after stealing 50 all of last year.  Ideally, Ellsbury will be back at the lead off spot by the end of the year performing well each night.  If he’s able to keep his average up over .300 and get on base at .350 or better, he should get back into the lead off spot.

* Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia’s power numbers are down from last year, but his average is still over .300 and his OBP is up near .380.  Pedroia’s numbers would be better if not for a terrible stretch while he was hitting out of the lead off spot.  This season is not near his MVP season from a year ago, but Pedroia is hitting .391 in 46 July at-bats, compared to just .222 in 108 June at-bats.

* David Ortiz

David Ortiz

What a season it’s been for David Ortiz.  Through the first two months of the year he looked like he had nothing left and didn’t belong in the majors.  Ortiz hit just 1 homerun though the first two months of the season and hit under .200.  After hitting .143 in May, Ortiz hit .320 in June with 7 homeruns.  Since June 2, Ortiz leads the Red Sox in homeruns (11), RBI (29), and OPS (1.011).  He’s hit a bit of a rough stretch lately, hitting just .200 so far in July, but he has hit 4 homeruns this month.  Hopefully, Ortiz can continue to perform well for the rest of the season.

* Jason Bay

Bay has had a tremendous first half, despite a recent 2 for 30 stretch.  He leads the Red Sox in homeruns (20) and RBI (72).  His average is a mediocre .260 as a result of the extended slump he was in, but he is still a force in the middle of the order.  Pitchers have adjusted to Bay and now it’s Bay’s turn to re-adjust to them.  Bay is on pace for the best offensive season of his career, which should help him in free agency this winter if he and the Red Sox are unable to reach an extension.

* Kevin Youkilis

Youkilis might be the MVP of this team for the first half, despite a 28 game stretch where he hit under .200.  Youkilis has been extremely valuable to this team during Lowell’s time on the DL, since he’s moved across the diamond to the third base flawlessly.  Youkilis hasn’t exactly been himself all season long, but the overall numbers are there.  He’ll be an important part of the Red Sox offense, especially if Mike Lowell is not able perform as well as he did prior to re-injuring his hip.

* Mike Lowell

Mike Lowell has played very well in the first half.  Defensively, he’s lost a little bit, but he catches everything that comes to him.  Lowell hit over .300 in April and May, but struggled in June until he was placed on the DL due to a hip injury.  Lowell’s injury status is a major conern as we start the second half of the season.  His status will determine whether or not the Red Sox make a move to obtain another bat at the trade deadline.

* JD Drew

Drew’s average hasn’t been there this year (hitting just .252), but, as usual, his OBP is very high (.377).  Drew does have 12 homeruns on the season and has been very good defensively.  He’s moved up and down the lineup as the Red Sox have needed used him consistently in spots 1-6 (except #4) in the batting order.  He’s performed the best out of the #5 slot (hitting .295 in 78 at-bats), but has been used at the top of the order since Ellsbury and Ortiz have been moved down in the order.

* Julio Lugo

Lugo has been god awful in the field and will probably he traded or cut very soon.

* Nick Green

Green struggled early in the season, but his defense has improved of late.  This stat is sort of meaningless, but the Red Sox are 42-15 when Nick Green starts at shortstop this season.  Once Jed Lowrie is at 100%, Green will likely move to a reserve role unless Lowrie struggles.

* Jason Varitek

Varitek is not hitting for average, but he has hit for power this season.  Overall, he’s hitting .238 with 13 homeruns on the season, a major improvement over last season.  Additionally, Varitek has done the same job he’s always done behind the plate.

* George Kottaras

His numbers aren’t great, but he’s done a good job catching Wakefield.  We haven’t heard his name much which is probably a good thing (he’s not screwing up).  He’s not a player that will win games for a team, but he also won’t lose them.

* Mark Kotsay

Kotsay missed quite a bit of time this season and has seen an increase in playing time with the injury to Mike Lowell.  Kotsay has had just 67 at-bats since he was activated off the DL on June 2, and has hit .269 in that time.

* Rocco Baldelli

Baldelli has primarily been used in right field when the Red Sox have faced a left-handed pitcher.  He’s hitting .282 in limited at-bats and is a good piece off the bench for this team

___

Overall, the team has played very well.  They have a 3 game lead in the AL East and the second best record in all of baseball.  If the team ever gets healthy, they should play even better.  That is, however, an unlikely scenario.  (more…)

The Celtics and Bruins are hitting the links and the Pats are about two months from the start of training camp, so it’s basically all-Sox, all-the-time.

(Sorry, the prospect of a Lebron vs. Kobe finals matchup doesn’t do it for me…not to get too sidetracked here, but can you imagine watching ESPN for those two weeks during the finals?  Not interested in a Lebron-Kobe love-fest; too predictable. )

As I was saying, it’s all about the Sox.

Thirty-nine games into the season, at 23-16 this is a solid start, considering the number of injuries the team has had to deal with.  So, without further ado, here is the good, the bad, and the ugly from the first 1/4 of the 2009 season.

The Good

* Jason Bay…Manny who? Boston knew they would be getting a better defender when they swapped Manny for Bay in a three-team deal at the trading deadline last season, but Bay has actually been Manny-esque with the bat.  Hovering around .300, Bay leads the team in HR (11) and RBI (40). He has also come up “clutch” in several big spots already this season, arguably none bigger than his 9th inning, game-tying 2-run HR off Mariano Rivera in the first meeting this season between the Sox and Yanks back on 4/24.

* The bullpen…save for the jettisoned Javy Lopez, this may be the deepest pen Theo has assembled during his tenure here.  Papelbon does his usual lights-out job at anchoring the pen, but the guys who set up for him are top-notch as well.  Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp…looks like a theft to me.  Already with four wins, Ramirez sports an ERA of 0.86 and has surrendered only 9 hits in 21 innings of work.  Delcarmen, Saito, and Okajima (especially as of late) continue to provide quality relief.  Add Masterson back into the mix and this pen is stacked.

The only concern remains is this pen over-exerted?  It certainly wasn’t last night (8 innings from Wakefield) but Ramirez and Okajima already have appeared in half of the team’s games and are on pace for around 80 appearances.  What is now the team’s biggest strength could become a liability with too much wear-and-tear.

* Wakefield…The elder statesman is pitching like it is 1995 (16-8, 2.95 ERA that season).  If his last outing against the Angels was a cause for concern (4.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER) he certainly quieted his critics with an absolute gem last night against the first-place Blue Jays.  Just 97 pitches to get through 8 innings and he allowed only one ER while scattering five hits…just what the Sox needed after returning from a tough West Coast trip.

The Bad

* The Aces (Beckett and Lester)…Lester has allowed 76 base runners in 47 IP.  Opponents have hit 10 HR against the southpaw.  His ERA is well-north of 6 (6.51).  So far he kind of looks like a left-handed version of  Pat Rapp.

Beckett’s not much better.  79 base runners in 47.2 IP; 5.85 ERA…dare I say Mark Portugal?

The problem here has been consistency.  A few great innings marred by one terrible frame.  The feeling, here at least, is that both will turn it around and post sub-4 ERAs.  Beckett may have turned the corner with his last start vs. Seattle (7 IP, 2 ER)  But for now, Sox fans are left to wonder, and especially about Lester.  Is his performace the result of fatigue?  His innings jumped from 63 in 2007 to 210 last year (postseason not included).  Verducci effect? Time will tell.

To state the obvious, the bottom line is that the Sox will need both to pitch at ace level if the team wants to return to the World Series.

* Dice-K…nine runs in 6.1 IP…and the team spent 50 million just to talk to him?  Hey, it could be worse; ask the Yanks about Wang.  Sidelined since April 15, Dice-K has pitched well in his rehab outings with the Paw Sox and is slated to return to the big league club this Friday.  The team can only hope that he will return to form after this hiatus.  The fact the team is 23-16 without Dice-K and with pedestrian performances from Beckett and Lester is a testament to this team’s depth.

The Ugly

* Nick Green’s defense…Entering last night’s game he was more than serviceable at the plate, hitting .302 with 1 HR/13 RBI.  That’s not the problem since it’s hard to expect that Jed Lowrie would have topped these numbers.  But the defense is a different story.  GrEEEEEEEEn has committed eight errors at shortstop and has started to become a defensive liability.   No error was more costly than his blunder against Seattle late in the game last Sunday.  When Julio Lugo is the better defensive option,…well, how should I put it?  It’s like saying that if Brian Scalabrine can’t go tonight, the Celtics have no chance at winning.

* BIG PAPI…Big Papi hasn’t hit a HR since George W. Bush was in the White House.  But, honestly it feels like he hasn’t hit a HR since Daddy Bush’s term.  He was 0-3 with a walk in his return to the line-up last night vs. Toronto, lowering his average to just .203.  The power and production simply isn’t there right now.  How long he remains in the number three hole remains to be seen.  Big Papi has done more for this franchise than was ever expected of him when he was signed as a free agent from the Twins in 2003.  But, if this anemic production continues, the Sox will need to add another bat.  Yes, they could use some pop, but just having somebody get on base would be a start.  With Youkilis (an omission from the good category, as is Pedroia), Bay, Drew, and Lowell hitting behind Ortiz, a below-average number three hitter will continue to take away RBI opportunities from the heart of the lineup.

IN SHORT…There’s a lot to be excited about, but for now the performances of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Ortiz may just determine how far this team can go.  These four players may just make or break the summer in Boston.