Inside the numbers: Why resting players has let the Colts down

By Jeffrey Pickette

It is a decision that will be debated for weeks to come.

Faced with the prospects of going 16-0, the 2009 Indianapolis Colts figuratively punted and played it safe yesterday, pulling most of their starters (including Peyton Manning) in the third quarter of a 15-10 game at home against the Jets.

The Colts lost 29-15 with Curtis Painter (who?) at QB for the Colts.  The Colts still have home field throughout the AFC playoffs, but gone is any chance at a perfect 19-0 season.  Was the decision to rest the starters worth it?  Was it the right thing to do? We’ll find out come playoff time.

But for now, I thought I’d take a look at if the Colts’ “organizational philosophy” of resting players actually pays off.  I looked at the 2003-2008 seasons, with 2003 being the first of seven straight 12+ win seasons for the Colts.  All stats and scores were obtained from the pro football reference.com website.

From 2003 to 2008, the Colts rested players in the 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons.  In 05, 07 and 08 the Colts were “one and done” and lost their first playoff game, even though they were probably favored to win each time.  In 04, the Colts won in the Wild Card Round and lost the next week to the Patriots in the Divisional Round.  

On the other hand, the two seasons in which the Colts did not rest players (03 and 06) they enjoyed more postseason success.  In 03, the Colts advanced to the AFC title game before losing to the Patriots and in 06 the Colts went all the way, beating the Bears in the Super Bowl.

Coincidence?  I think not.  While I am largely going off box scores, standings and not watching game film, I still feel comfortable saying that this “organizational philosophy” has largely let the Colts down.  Sure, other factors should be taken into consideration, but there is a definite trend here.

The 2005 season, in which the Colts started the season 13-0, is probably the best parallel to the 2009 Colts.  Having secured home field relatively early that season, the Colts rested many of their starters in the last 2 games of the season.  That seems to be the route the 2009 Colts team is taking.  In 05 the Colts were ousted from the playoffs in their first playoff game after basically going a month between playing meaningful games.  Could the same fate be in store for the 2009 Colts?

Below is a more detailed season-by-season breakdown of the Colts’ resting strategy.
  
2003: 12-4, 1st AFC South, no rest, 2-1 playoffs

Colts starters played in their final game (12/28/03) at Houston, having to secure the division title (the Titans were also 12-4 in ‘03).

The Colts advanced to the AFC Championship that year, beating the Broncos and Chiefs before losing to the Patriots.

2004: 12-4, 1st AFC South, rested final game, 1-1 playoffs

Colts rested against Denver in the final game of the season (1-2-05) since the division was already secured.  The Colts lost to the Broncos in the regular season finale, but played the Broncos the next week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and won. The Colts lost in the Divisional round to the Patriots.

2005: 14-2, 1st AFC South, rested final 2 games, 0-1 playoffs

The 2005 Colts started 13-0 before losing at home to San Diego in week 15.  With the division, a first round bye and home field secured, the Colts rested starters for much of the Seattle game in Week 16 and for almost all of the Cardinals game in week 17.  

The Colts, therefore, basically went from December 18 (date of Chargers game) to January 15 (date of Divisional round game vs. the Steelers) without playing at full speed.  The Colts were upset at home by the Steelers.

2006: 12-4, 1st in AFC South, no rest, 4-0 playoffs, SB champs

The Colts did not rest and went 4-0 in the playoffs en route to Manning’s first Super Bowl championship.

2007: 13-3, 1st in AFC South, rested part of final game, 0-1 playoffs

The Colts secured the 2nd seed, and with it a bye, so they rested starters for part of the regular season finale against the Titans.  The Colts lost that game 16-10 and lost their divisional playoff game a couple of weeks later to the Chargers, making it the second time in three seasons that the Colts were “one and done” in the playoffs.

2008: 12-4, 2nd in AFC South, rested most of final game, 0-1 playoffs

In the 2008 regular season finale, both the Titans (the South champs that year) and the Colts rested in what was a 23-0 snoozer that went in favor of the Colts.  The Colts, the AFC’s#5 seed, had to travel to 8-8 San Diego in the Wild Card Round the next week.  The Colts lost that game 23-17 and were “one and done” for the third time in four seasons.

Some interesting reports on the news wire today that are worth noting:

Red Sox:

Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox worked in an option to Lackey’s contract that would pay him the league minimum at the end of his contract, should he miss time due to an elbow injury (a pre-existing condition)

WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Red Sox may still be considering signing Jason Bay.This report comes one day after the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman suggested that Jason Bay or Matt Holliday could “fall into the Red Sox’ lap.”

The Globe 10.0 discusses the Mike Lowell situation

Patriots:
ESPNBoston.com’s Mike Reiss has an updated injury report for the upcoming game against the Jaguars

The Boston Globe’s Tony Massarotti has five burning questions for the 2009 Patriots

Fred Taylor commented on the possibility of the Jaguars moving to LA

Tom Brady indicated the Patriots are still in search of an identity on offense

Celtics

Paul Pierce is out with a knee infection

Bruce Bowen breaks down the Celtics-Magic matchup

Bill Simmons expects plenty of NBA trades this season

Bruins

The Globe 10.0 debates the goalie situation in Boston

Wembley Stadium, England

This week the Patriots and Buccaneers face off across the pond, as the NFL looks to tap into the UK market. The Patriots, coming off of a 59-0 win against the winless Tennessee Titans square off against an 0-6 team from Tampa that may well be the worst team in the NFL. The Bucs have a first-year head coach in Raheem Morris and also have a first-year GM in Mark Dominik. The last thing they want to do is go across the Atlantic to play a game, given they’re just trying to get their act together on their native continent. The Patriots probably weren’t too interested in making the trip either, but it is an effort to put the NFL first and help expand the brand of the NFL, as well as the Patriot name. That said, I wonder if people in England would be able to root for a team called the “Patriots.”

The players understand why they are playing this game in London.

“I wasn’t totally excited with it, but it’s one of those things the NFL wants us to do,” left guard Logan Mankins said.

“I’d rather stay in the States and stick to our normal routine that we do every week. It’s one of those things where you just have to deal with it and go play the game.”

Others, such as RB Laurence Maroney, shared the same sentiments, but making the trip to England is a similar flight to one to the West Coast, and sure, it helps they get to play a terrible team.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell indicated that the league has “tremendous interest” in having a permanent NFL franchise in England to take advantage of the British market.

“The interest and the enthusiasm for our game continues to grow, and we want to feed that,” Goodell said. “We want to respond to that by hopefully bringing more to the UK.”

“I expect that sometime in the next couple of years, we could be playing multiple games here,” Goodell said. “If we brought more than one game here, and it continues to have the same kind of enthusiasm and growth of interest, I think that is about as good of an indicator you can get that it could successfully support a franchise. And that’s what we’re looking at.”

Is it a good idea to have a team in England? Only time will tell, but on the surface, it seems like a logistical nightmare. For one thing, there would be 33 teams unless a current US franchise moved overseas, but that’s a whole different story. On the surface, I think it’s a terrible idea. Which teams will have to make the trip each year? What division would the London team be in? The London team would make 8 trips a year across the ocean and would deal with a large time difference. It really doesn’t make much sense. I suppose they could have an entire division in Europe, but even then, I don’t think there would be much interest, as shown by the failure of NFL Europe.

In any case, I don’t care what continent this game is being played on, the Patriots should have no problem taking care of the Bucs.

Now for the rest of the Week 7 picks:
(As always, home team in caps; picks not made against the spread).
Chargers (-4.5) over CHIEFS
TEXANS (-3) over Niners
Colts (-13) over RAMS
STEELERS (-4) over Vikings
Packers (-7) over BROWNS
PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
BENGALS (-1.5) over Bears
Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS
Saints (-6.5) over DOLPHINS
GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 43-15

Following today’s 27-21 victory over the Ravens, the Patriots moved to 3-1 on the season.  This was a well-played game by both teams, and another game where the Patriots defense really held their own, allowing just 14 points to the Baltimore offense (Terrell Suggs scored a TD on a Brady-strip-sack).

The Patriots scored all of their points on offense and again had the benefit of a turnover, this time on the opening kickoff.

Analysis:  Offense

Overall, the Patriots looked good.  The worst part of their offense was the pathetic rushes of Laurence Maroney, who still has not figured out how to consistently get 3 or 4 yards on every carry like Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk have.

In the red zone today, the Patriots scored 3TDs and hit 2 FGs today, the first of those touchdowns was a sneak by Tom Brady on the goal line, the second was a 12-yard run by Sammy Morris, and the final touchdown was a 14-yard strike to WR Randy Moss, his first of the season, 137th of his career. Gostkowski hit two FGs inside in the the 20 — one from 32-yards out and the other a 33-yard kick.

Brady completed 21 of his 38 pass attempts (the fewest number of attempts this season) for a total of 258-yards and threw 1 touchdown without an interception.  He also rushed for a total of 11 yards, 5 more than Maroney.

The timing between Brady and his receivers has been a major flaw in the Patriots’ offense in previous weeks, those issues were mostly settled today.  On short throws Brady found his targets, resulting in offensive momentum and RedZone success (aided by a solid running game).  The Patriots did, however, struggle with long pass attempts on the sidelines.  The majority of the throws down the field were overthrown by Brady, something he and his receivers need to work on this week.

Other than Maroney, the running backs played well against the Ravens’ good run-defense.  Taylor, Morris, and Faulk combined for 68 yards on 18 carries, an average of 3.8 yards per carry.  Given those numbers, they probably could have run the ball a little bit more, especially in the fourth quarter, which might have made things easier on the Patriots’ defense, but they did enough to win the game offensively.

Analysis: Defense

The defense looked pretty good during the game today.  Flacco and the Ravens were able to gain yardage, both through the air and on the ground, but they only got the ball in the end zone twice, which is impressive given that the Ravens had over 300 yards of offense (the first team to gain over 300 yards against the Patriots this season).

The secondary looks vastly improved with guys like Jonathan Wilhite, Leigh Bodden, and Shawn Springs playing cornerback, and safeties Brandon Merriweather and Brandon McGowan (who is now starting ahead of James Sanders).  They gave up some yardage, but when it mattered the most, the defense held their ground.  The Ravens were threatening late in the fourth quarter before the Patriots stopped them on third and fourth down inside the red zone.

Analysis: Special Teams

The kicking team forced a turnover on the opening kickoff, which would have been a bigger play if the Patriots had scored a touchdown since they started inside the red zone.  The Patriots also ended up fumbling on their first second-half possession, which went as a strip-sack by Terrell Suggs and ended up being a touchdown since the ball was recovered in the end zone.

Gostkowski hit both of his field goal tries and also had some great kickoffs, but I think the Patriots would like some better play from punter Chris Hanson, who put a couple of punts into the end zone.  He’s been good in his career though, so perhaps it was just some bad luck on bounces today.

Overall the Patriots played well today.  They do have a couple of things to work on, especially the long out-routes, but they’ll take the win and travel to Denver to face the Broncos, which will be interesting now that former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the head coach in Denver.

That’s all we can really say about how the New England Patriots have played through the first two weeks of the 2009-10 NFL Season.

In Week 1, the Patriots got a gift turnover at the end of the game to put together a game winning drive and squeak by the Buffalo Bills by one measly point.  This was basically the same Bills team that the Patriots hung 52 points on in 2007.  The rust between Brady and his receivers showed throughout the first half of that game and things seemed like they came together with the game on the line.  Brady was 12-14 on the final two possessions of the game with two TD passes to Ben Watson in the middle of the end zone.

At the end of the game, Randy Moss and Wes Welker each finished with a dozen catches and some of the timing problems they had in the first half were worked out in the second half, something Patriots fans believed would carry over into Week 2 against the trash-talking Jets.  Boy were we wrong.

The Jets pressured Brady all afternoon and he just never looked comfortable.  He threw an interception for the second straight game, passed for just over 200 yards, and more importantly, threw a whopping ZERO touchdown passes.  With the 16-9 loss, Tom Brady lost his first game in his previous 21 regular season starts, dating back to December of 2006 versus Miami.  That’s the second time Brady has had a 21-game winning streak snapped in his career, the first time he won that many in a row was between the 2003 and 2004 seasons (including playoffs).

In Week 2, the Jets defense was in on Brady almost every play.  The Jets also had good coverage on Randy Moss with CB Darrelle Revis, and very good coverage on Joey Galloway and Julian Edelman, despite Edelman’s 98 yards receiving. The Patriots desperately missed Wes Welker in the game, as shown by the Patriots inability to convert on third-and-short yardage situations, not to mention the lack of a check-down option while Brady was under pressure.

The Jets pass rush was most effective when they rushed 6 or more according to the following numbers (credit ESPNBoston.com):

When the Jets rushed six or more, Brady was 6-of-21 for 62 yards with one interception.

When the Jets rushed five or fewer, Brady was 17-of-26 for 154 yards.

Given the above stats, we can see the Jets Pats rush was most effective when they threw the entire kitchen sink at Tom Brady, something they were able to as a result of the Patriots’ lack of commitment to the running game.

It is actually the surprising the Patriots didn’t run the ball more; they were fairly successful with Fred Taylor running the ball.  Taylor carried the ball 8 times for 46 yards (5.8 ypc), while Laurence Maroney carried the ball 6 times for 23 yards.  I’d like to see what Taylor can do with 15+ carries.  You have to think it would keep defenses on their toes and not allow them to blitz virtually every play.

In any case, the Patriots were dominated across the board by the Jets in Week 2 and it will take a significant improvement in play to beat the Falcons next Sunday.

Tonight I went to the TD Garden (is that the offical name yet?, whatever, it will be soon) for an event that honored a few Boston sports figures.

The program for tonight’s “The Tradition” event was as follows:

Masters of Ceremones: Dale Arnold and Michael Holley (of WEEI’s “The Dale and Holley Show”)

Ken Hodge (Award presented by Milt Schmidt)

Sam Jones (Award presented by Aubre Jones and Bill Russell)

Nancy Kerrigan (Award presented by Jerry Solomon)

Jack Parker and Jerry York (Award presented by Mike Lynch)

Troy Brown (Award presented by Bill Belichick)

Curt Schilling (Award presented by Dr. William Morgan)
Prior to the presentations, there was a period of time where people at the event enjoyed some food and drink and mingled with one another.  I had the pleasure of attending this event with Jan Volk, who, among other things, was the GM of the Celtics from 1984 to 1997 and also serves as a member of the Board of Trustees at The Sports Museum, the organization that put the event together.

I had the opportunity to meet several people, including John Havlicek, Tommy Heinsohn, K.C. Jones, and Sam Jones, among others.  Each had a different story to tell and it was nice to get a chance to see a little bit of each person’s personality.  This was sort of cool for me to meet some of these people, but the presentations themselves were quite entertaining.

The presentations opened with a slight recap of this decade in Boston sports.  A video tribute of the championships won by the Patriots (3), Red Sox (2), Celtics (1), BC Eagles (2 NCAA National titles in Ice Hockey), and the BU Terries (1 National title in Ice Hockey).  It truly was a nice tribute even though I knew about each one of those championships and, in the case of the professional championships, I was either present in person (for the Celtics), or was watching on television with the rest of New England. Sometimes it’s nice to be reminded of the good times.  I always enjoy video of players and coaches celebrating victories and especially championships because it just looks like it was a lot of fun when it happened.  On top of that, I remember how I felt the night the Boston teams won their respective championships and the video tributes just put me back in that zone.

Then, each presentation occurred in the order mentioned above.  The presenter announced the award and then the recipient came onto the stage and had a medal put around their neck.  Followed by that, the presenter(s), recipient, and both Arnold and Holley sat down and the audience heard some stories about the athletes.  Some of those were quite interesting.

Sam Jones and Bill Russell played together and have won 21 championships combined, the only two players in sports who have won that many championships.  A story they told was about Jones making the team after he was drafted.  Jones was the only member of those teams to be drafted out of a Division II basketball program and make the team (and then win 10 championships).  The story goes that Red Auerbach asked Russell about Jones and Russell responded with “Well I don’t know all of ‘em!,” referring to black players, since at that time, there really weren’t too many opportunities for black athletes.  It turned out Jones made the team and he says he was told he made the team because “Russell needed someone to talk to” and Jones’ response to this person was to tell Russell “Thank you very much.” Needless to say, it was very entertaining.

During Troy Brown’s presentation, Belichick said some very good things about Brown, and they talked about Brown playing DB for the Patriots for some time as well.  The team went into a game and Belichick says he remembers saying to Romeo Crennell that they’d be OK as long as they didn’t lose another corner during the game.  Then next thing you know, Asante Samuel was injured on the second play of the game.  Belichick recalls looking at Crennell and saying “You’ve got to be kidding me!”  Then it was time for Troy Brown to enter on the defensive side and wouldn’t you know it, he played the position pretty well for the rest of the year.  I think the most interesting moment though was when Brown made a statement that left Belichick absolutely speechless.  Brown talked about why he was a champion and gave a lot of credit to Belichick for it, saying it took the great coaching and leadership of Belichick to make everything that happened late in his career possible.  Belichick really had no response for that.

Schilling’s presentation was interesting, as his presenter was the doctor who performed the surgeries on Schilling’s ankle during the 2004 season.  Schilling revealed that he was getting injections in his ankle almost every game during the season because of pain that was caused by a known condition in his ankle.  If Schilling altered his delivery, he knew he would lose a few miles on his fastball so he continued to pitch through the pain all season long, and ultimately shortening his career in the process.  He put it all over the top with the procedures on his ankle during the post season that allowed him to pitch in Game 6 of the ALCS and in the World Series.  The most telling thing Schilling said was that he did what he thought everyone else in the locker room would have done if they were in his position (in reference to procedures on his ankle).  Many in Boston might refer to what Schilling did as heroic, but he never will.

All in all it was good night and extremely entertaining.  Was it worth the $150 admission? I haven’t decided yet, but I would probably go again next year, so I guess that means I have decided.

We can’t cover it all at ThisIsTitleTownUSA (considering we don’t have press credentials), so here are a few interesting links from the world wide web.

* Brady’s back… The Pats QB is in Foxboro this week participating in the Patriots’ offseason OTAs (organized team activities).   While the workouts are without pads, it is still encouraging to see The Franchise back in action.  This is essentially the first time fans have seen Brady–on a football field anyways–since he injured his left knee in last season’s opener against Kansas City.  The media will have access to Thursday’s OTA and Brady is scheduled to meet with media members then, according to Boston.com.

~ Here’s a link to the team’s official site, complete with video footage of Brady on the practice field. 

~ The ever-reliable Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe and Boston.com asked former Pats backup QBs Jim Miller and Scott Zolak “what would you be looking for from Brady in practice?”  The post is interesting in that it really delves into the mechanics (footwork is emphasized) of the QB position.

~ Sports Illustrated’s Peter King scores an exclusive interview with Brady for an article in the upcoming issue of the magazine.  The online version can be found here. King proves why he is one of the best in the business with this article. It covers everything from Brady’s surgery and rehab to his wedding to Gisele to his life as a father.  Brady is this week’s SI cover boy (cover picture seen above).

* The Sox

~ Boston.com’s Chad Finn chimes in with a post on his popular “Touching All the Bases” blog.  Always a must-read for a Sox fan (at least for me).

~ Foxsports.com’s Ken Rosenthal writes a thought-provoking column about how “blogs and chat rooms and other Internet vehicles” have fueled the steroid witch-hunt in MLB.  Rosenthal uses David Ortiz as an example of how bloggers have linked sluggers with steroid use when these players experience a sudden drop in production at the plate.

“For all I know, Ortiz might have been a user; the Steroid Era, sadly, has taught us to view all players skeptically, Rosenthal writes in his article.  “But there is a significant difference between holding such a view privately and accusing a player publicly without any factual basis for such an opinion.”

“There is no caution. There are no standards,” he continues.  “But there are plenty of players — guilty and innocent — getting smeared.”

(because it sounds so much better than ‘random thoughts’…)

Here is what I hope will be the first of many deep thoughts posted on this blog.  (If you’re not familiar with the reference, it’s from SNL…click here.)

JUST SAY NO…to Michael Vick.

Respected NFL-insiders Peter King and John Clayton both considered the possibility that the Patriots could be suitors for the once highly-touted QB.  The line of thinking is that the Pats have taken risks on players with sullied reputations (Corey Dillon, Randy Moss) and if there is any coaching staff/locker room that could reign in Vick it would be one lead by Belichick and Brady.  And let’s not forget that the Pats were burned by the Wildcat formation against Miami early last season and would probably love to develop a variation of the package.  Could you think of a better Wildcat weapon than Vick?  His “slash” skill-sets are almost tailor-made for the formation.

Sorry, but quit dreaming; it’s not that simple.  This isn’t Madden football we’re talking about where there are no real consequences.

For one, the argument that the Pats have signed plenty of malcontents and therefore ”why not sign Vick?” is deeply flawed.  Dillon and Moss had attitude problems and were looking for a change of scenery.  Vick, on the other hand, is a convicted criminal.  After two years in the slammer, there is a decent chance that Vick’s skills may have deteriorated.  Look, he was fun to watch, but he was a mediocre pocket-passer to begin with, so if he lost any athleticism he will be a below-average-to average player at best.

This team has dealt with spygate, “running up the score” and a plethora of other minor controversies over the last few years, but I doubt the Pats (or many other teams for that matter) are going to want to deal with the potential backlash that comes with signing Vick.  PETA and other animal rights groups are likely to be all over any team that signs Vick.  The Pats would be smart to avoid the media circus that is certain to cling to Vick.

By and large, the mainstream Boston sports media is in line with this opinion…and it should be. Whether you are an animal lover or not, what Vick did was inexcusable.  But, he paid a hefty debt for his actions and in a society filled with second chances, he will get a second shot at the NFL.  Just not in a Patriots uniform.