Inside the numbers: Why resting players has let the Colts down

By Jeffrey Pickette

It is a decision that will be debated for weeks to come.

Faced with the prospects of going 16-0, the 2009 Indianapolis Colts figuratively punted and played it safe yesterday, pulling most of their starters (including Peyton Manning) in the third quarter of a 15-10 game at home against the Jets.

The Colts lost 29-15 with Curtis Painter (who?) at QB for the Colts.  The Colts still have home field throughout the AFC playoffs, but gone is any chance at a perfect 19-0 season.  Was the decision to rest the starters worth it?  Was it the right thing to do? We’ll find out come playoff time.

But for now, I thought I’d take a look at if the Colts’ “organizational philosophy” of resting players actually pays off.  I looked at the 2003-2008 seasons, with 2003 being the first of seven straight 12+ win seasons for the Colts.  All stats and scores were obtained from the pro football reference.com website.

From 2003 to 2008, the Colts rested players in the 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons.  In 05, 07 and 08 the Colts were “one and done” and lost their first playoff game, even though they were probably favored to win each time.  In 04, the Colts won in the Wild Card Round and lost the next week to the Patriots in the Divisional Round.  

On the other hand, the two seasons in which the Colts did not rest players (03 and 06) they enjoyed more postseason success.  In 03, the Colts advanced to the AFC title game before losing to the Patriots and in 06 the Colts went all the way, beating the Bears in the Super Bowl.

Coincidence?  I think not.  While I am largely going off box scores, standings and not watching game film, I still feel comfortable saying that this “organizational philosophy” has largely let the Colts down.  Sure, other factors should be taken into consideration, but there is a definite trend here.

The 2005 season, in which the Colts started the season 13-0, is probably the best parallel to the 2009 Colts.  Having secured home field relatively early that season, the Colts rested many of their starters in the last 2 games of the season.  That seems to be the route the 2009 Colts team is taking.  In 05 the Colts were ousted from the playoffs in their first playoff game after basically going a month between playing meaningful games.  Could the same fate be in store for the 2009 Colts?

Below is a more detailed season-by-season breakdown of the Colts’ resting strategy.
  
2003: 12-4, 1st AFC South, no rest, 2-1 playoffs

Colts starters played in their final game (12/28/03) at Houston, having to secure the division title (the Titans were also 12-4 in ‘03).

The Colts advanced to the AFC Championship that year, beating the Broncos and Chiefs before losing to the Patriots.

2004: 12-4, 1st AFC South, rested final game, 1-1 playoffs

Colts rested against Denver in the final game of the season (1-2-05) since the division was already secured.  The Colts lost to the Broncos in the regular season finale, but played the Broncos the next week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and won. The Colts lost in the Divisional round to the Patriots.

2005: 14-2, 1st AFC South, rested final 2 games, 0-1 playoffs

The 2005 Colts started 13-0 before losing at home to San Diego in week 15.  With the division, a first round bye and home field secured, the Colts rested starters for much of the Seattle game in Week 16 and for almost all of the Cardinals game in week 17.  

The Colts, therefore, basically went from December 18 (date of Chargers game) to January 15 (date of Divisional round game vs. the Steelers) without playing at full speed.  The Colts were upset at home by the Steelers.

2006: 12-4, 1st in AFC South, no rest, 4-0 playoffs, SB champs

The Colts did not rest and went 4-0 in the playoffs en route to Manning’s first Super Bowl championship.

2007: 13-3, 1st in AFC South, rested part of final game, 0-1 playoffs

The Colts secured the 2nd seed, and with it a bye, so they rested starters for part of the regular season finale against the Titans.  The Colts lost that game 16-10 and lost their divisional playoff game a couple of weeks later to the Chargers, making it the second time in three seasons that the Colts were “one and done” in the playoffs.

2008: 12-4, 2nd in AFC South, rested most of final game, 0-1 playoffs

In the 2008 regular season finale, both the Titans (the South champs that year) and the Colts rested in what was a 23-0 snoozer that went in favor of the Colts.  The Colts, the AFC’s#5 seed, had to travel to 8-8 San Diego in the Wild Card Round the next week.  The Colts lost that game 23-17 and were “one and done” for the third time in four seasons.